Just like last year, each week for the remainder of the college basketball season, I will share my favorite spots for the Saturday slate.
In addition to my raw projection, I will focus on matchups, situational spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
For this week, I will highlight my 10 favorite spots I had circled for Saturday's slate.
For reference, I write these up on Friday early evening after the openers come out. The market will obviously move overnight, so I always will list the price at which I'd play each game.
- 2022-23: 33-22 (60.0%) +9.24 units
- 2023-24: 13-11-1 (54.2%) +1.2 units
- Overall: 46-33-1 (58.2%) +10.44 units
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Stuckey's Saturday College Basketball Spots
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Stuckey is targeting from Saturday's college basketball slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
UConn vs. St. John's
I'm speculating a bit here, but I believe Alex Karaban either won't play or will be limited with an ankle injury he suffered in UConn's last game.
At full strength, the Huskies are a juggernaut on both ends of the floor. However, without Karaban, either their defense or offensive spacing will take a major hit depending on whether Hurley wants to go with a smaller or bigger lineup on the floor.
From a matchup perspective, the St. John's morphing matchup zone defense can disrupt what UConn wants to do with its myriad of cutting and ball screens in nonstop motion action. Offensively, St. John's has issues at times, but it can at least crash the offensive glass and get out in transition for some easy buckets off UConn turnovers.
This looks like a good opportunity to buy low on the Johnnies, who may have been caught looking ahead a bit to this matchup in their loss at Xavier earlier this week.
Meanwhile, we are probably at the peak of the market on the Huskies after nine straight wins, but their last four league road games have all been close throughout.
Pick: St. John's +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
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Saint Joe's vs. La Salle
I'm looking to buy the Explorers in a nice revenge spot in this Big 5 rivalry against a Saint Joe's team that has won three of its last four since blowing out La Salle — but those trio of victories came by a combined five points.
The Hawks play a very compact defense, but that's fine for the rim-averse Explorers, who live and die by the jump shot. They will obviously need to make some to avoid being swept by their cross-city rival for the first time in nine seasons.
However, this looks like the right time to sell a Hawks team that I believe has reached the pinnacle of its market value and has certainly benefited from several key opponent injuries throughout the season, which basic advanced metrics won't capture.
Saint Joe's, which also has Dayton on deck, loves to get up as many 3-balls as possible, but La Salle is stingy in that regard.
I worry a bit about the Hawks dominating the offensive glass, but I think the Explorers are a very live home dog here in Tom Gola Arena.
Pick: La Salle +4.5 (Play to +4)
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Texas vs. TCU
I'm buying Texas after two straight losses against a TCU team that has won three straight, which may have caused a bit of value between two clubs I don't rate much differently.
Plus, Texas matches up very well schematically. TCU wants to get out in transition as much as possible and attack the rim relentlessly throughout the game. However, that might not be as easy against a Longhorn defense that really limits opposing transition opportunities (10th percentile, per Synergy) and defends the rim at a high level.
Texas also excels at limiting second chance points — an area where TCU usually dominates.
The Horned Frogs seem to play nothing but close games with five of their past eight being decided by one possession or in overtime.
I think we're in store for another TCU game that comes right down to the wire, especially if some of the negative looming shooting regression on both ends comes to fruition for TCU.
Pick: Texas +5.5 (Play to +4.5)
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Northwestern vs. Minnesota
With a full week off before this Big Ten tilt, the Gophers could get starting center Pharrel Payne back from injury after he missed their last game. Head coach Ben Johnson said he's trending in the right direction.
Meanwhile, Northwestern will hit the highway for a second straight road game after an absolute war in Evanston that saw the Wildcats go down to Purdue in overtime, 105-96, with four starters logging at least 38 minutes.
Not only is this a great scheduling spot for the Gophers, but shooting regression could really work in their favor. In league play, they're shooting a paltry 29.5% from beyond the arc, while Northwestern leads the Big Ten in conference play at an unsustainable clip of 43.8%.
Chris Collins' squad likely won't score 1.29 points per possession on guarded jump shots forever.
Plus, Minnesota does an excellent job of limiting 3-point attempts.
It should also dominate the offensive glass and get to the line at a high rate on the other end of the floor against a Northwestern defense that rates dead last in league play in efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, defensive rebounding percentage and foul rate, per KenPom.
Pick: Minnesota +1 (Play to PK)
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Morgan State vs. South Carolina State
I think Morgan State has value in the market at the moment since the Bears are now finally at full strength with a 100% healthy Wynston Tabbs and Will Thomas.
Both of these teams profile very similarly in their strengths and weaknesses. Expect a fast-paced game in which both offenses thrive in transition but struggle mightily against the press and in the half-court, where both try to do most of their work off second-chance opportunities.
There should be an abundance of free-throw attempts in this particular matchup, which would actually favor the road Bears, who are much more reliable from the stripe. On the season, Morgan State shoots 73.3% (119th), while South Carolina State has connected on just 67.0% (319th) of its attempts.
That could make all the difference in a matchup that features two defenses that rank outside the top 330 nationally in free-throw attempt rate.
Ultimately, these are two teams I have power-rated almost dead even at the moment, so I'm happy to take the points here.
Pick: Morgan State +4.5 (Play to +4)
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Grand Canyon vs. Utah Valley
This is a tough spot for the Antelopes, who survived a revenge matchup with Seattle in overtime on Thursday night.
Now, they must recover in time for a tricky travel spot against a Utah Valley squad that has probably had this game circled after a late-game scuffle following a Grand Canyon dunk at the end of regulation, which actually decided the cover.
The Antelopes also aren't a very deep team, so tired legs could be an issue in the altitude of Orem after multiple starters logged over 40 minutes in that overtime win.
Grand Canyon is the class of the league, but it has certainly come out flat in a number of similar spots in league play already this year, falling behind by double digits in eventual victories over Utah Tech, Abilene Christian, Tarleton State and UT Arlington.
From a matchup perspective. Utah Valley should once again have success exploiting Grand Canyon's turnover issues after forcing a 28% turnover rate in the first meeting.
The Wolverines are not a good shooting team, but based on my projections, they should finish the season better than their current 26.9% rate behind the arc, so some positive shooting regression certainly looms in their favor.
Utah Valley has one of the more underrated home-court advantages in college basketball. On the season, Todd Phillips' club has gone 7-1 in the friendly confines of the UCCU Center with wins over Seattle, Weber State and Cal Baptist compared to just 1-10 on the road.
For what it's worth, over the past three seasons, Utah Valley is 11-1 against the spread at home in league play against opponents with less than four days in between games.
I think this is a good opportunity to buy low on the Wolverines, who will come back home after playing five of their last six on the road.
Pick: Utah Valley +6.5 (Play to +6)
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Troy vs. Georgia State
Troy head coach Scott Cross has done a tremendous job so far this season with one of the least experienced rosters coming into the season. Troy surprisingly finds itself just one game behind Appalachian State in the Sun Belt standings at 7-2 in league play.
That said, I believe it's time to sell high on the Trojans, who have probably reached the top of their market value after benefiting from a very easy league schedule to date.
They're also only 2-7 away from home with their sole road victories coming over lowly Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern.
Meanwhile, this looks like a prime opportunity to buy low on Georgia State, which has dropped five straight overall, including its most recent home loss to first-place App State, which followed a grueling four-game conference road tip.
Most importantly, Georgia State matches up very well on paper with Troy.
The Trojans, who press at one of the highest rates in the country, excel in forcing turnovers (40th) and creating points off breakaway steals (fifth). However, Georgia State takes extremely good care of the basketball, ranking 12th nationally in turnover percentage.
Troy's aggressive defense also leads to plenty of fouls (302nd in free-throw attempt rate allowed), which could lead to positive results for a Panthers club that shoots a rock-solid 74.9% from the charity stripe.
Georgia State also does an excellent job defending the 3-point line and getting after it on the defensive glass, which could neutralize two of Troy's primary offensive strengths.
Pick: Georgia State +2.5 (Play to +2)
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Air Force vs. Boise State
This is a difficult situational spot for Boise State. It's coming off a massive road win as a double-digit underdog at the Pit against New Mexico, which followed an overtime heartbreaker against Utah State.
Now, before back-t0-back Mountain West showdowns against Colorado State and a rematch with those Aggies, the Broncos must remain focused on a home date with Air Force.
In this exact spot two years ago, Boise State beat the Falcons by just six as 19-point favorites.
This game profiles as a lower-scoring affair, so points could come at a premium, which makes the juicy underdog even more intriguing. Air Force will likely get bullied on the glass, but it has enough offensive firepower to stay within the number, especially if Boise State comes out flat after its gigantic victory in Albuquerque.
Lastly, Air Force has played much better on the road this season with a blowout win over UNLV and a near-upset at Colorado State in an overtime loss. Consequently, Air Force ranks No. 1 nationally in Haslametrics' Away From Home metric.
Pick: Air Force +13.5 (Play to +12.5)
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Western Illinois vs. SEMO
Who wants to back the least profitable team in college basketball this season? Does that sound appetizing to you? No? OK, so maybe just me.
Ultimately, this looks like a good time to buy low at the bottom of the market on SEMO after three straight road losses and non-covers to drop to 3-13-2 ATS on the year.
It's also a decent scheduling spot. Not only does SEMO have two extra days of prep and rest, but WIU will also be playing its fourth straight road game with only two days of rest and a rotation that usually only goes six or seven deep.
Fatigue could be an issue against a SEMO squad that at least has endless depth.
I'm not here to say many nice things about SEMO, especially in regard to its horrific offense. However, its defense actually matches up fairly well with WIU.
It does a respectable job of taking away the 3, and WIU can't exploit its struggles defending at the rim or in the pick and roll. Plus, the Redhawks can limit Western's second-chance opportunities while also turning the Leathernecks over (344th) at a high rate.
Expect some press against a WIU offense that ranks in the 10th percentile nationally in that department, per Synergy.
The Leathernecks also have some potential looming shooting regression. They're shooting over 40% from deep in league play while holding OVC foes to sub-30%. Their opponents are eventually going to make open jumpers at some point in conference play.
Lastly, Western Illinois will likely get to the line a bunch against a SEMO defense that ranks outside the top 350 in free-throw rate. However, the Leathernecks are horrendous from the stripe, ranking 359th nationally, which could also ultimately decide the cover if the spread is in the balance in the final minutes.
For what it's worth, Western Illinois won the first meeting at home by seven, but it was actually only a one-point game with a minute to go.
Pick: Southeast Missouri State +4.5 (Play to +4)
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Maryland vs. Michigan State
After demolishing in-state rival Michigan in the second half on Wednesday, Sparty could be on upset alert against a desperate Terps team that has had a full week to prepare for a Michigan State rematch following a heartbreaking home loss less than two weeks ago.
Maryland is quietly playing its best basketball of the season, ranking fifth in Haslametrics' Momentum Rating. The Terps have gone 4-2 over their past six league games with their only losses coming by one possession against Northwestern on the road and the aforementioned home loss to these Spartans.
With an upset in East Lansing, Kevin Willard's bunch could find themselves squarely in the bubble conversation.
Maryland's defense, which has been elite all season, now ranks sixth nationally in overall Adjusted Efficiency and first in Big Ten play, per KenPom.
Similar to the first matchup, don't expect Willard to use much press or zone since the Terps showed their stifling man-to-man defense can contain Michigan State's downfall guards in the half-court.
They're as effective as any team in limiting opposing 3-point attempts, which is key against Michigan State's deadly spot-up shooting.
The Terps will filter everything to the middle of the floor. That's where Julian Reese leads a stop unit that ranks in the top 10 nationally in field goal percentage allowed against attempts from the midrange and at the rim, where Michigan State looks to do most of its damage.
The Maryland offense still has issues, but some of its role players and younger pieces have started to gain a bit more confidence of late. With Jahmir Young running the show, the offense certainly gets quality looks, ranking in the 92nd percentile in open jumper rate, per Synergy.
However, they sit in just the 16th percentile in efficiency on those unguarded jumpers. Maryland will never excel as an outside shooting team, but it should see its dismal 3-point percentage rise a bit over the rest of the season.
Conversely, Michigan State likely won't sustain its current 41% clip from beyond the arc in league play.
My only fear is Reese getting into foul trouble on the road. That ultimately doomed the Terps in another one-possession loss at Minnesota, but I'm willing to take that risk with a Maryland team finally playing with a ton of confidence.
The Terps are 0-5 in one-possession games this season, so they've been close to breaking through in a number of losses and aren't as bad as their record indicates.
I gladly scooped up the price I show value on in a game where points should come at a premium. Maryland's defense, along with its ability to get to the line and crash the offensive glass, can keep this one close throughout.
Pick: Maryland +7.5 (Play to +7)
