Air Force vs Nevada Odds
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10.5 -102 | 133.5 -110 / -110 | +450 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10.5 -120 | 133.5 -110 / -110 | -630 |
There is some great Mountain West Conference action on the Friday night slate as the Nevada Wolf Pack host the Air Force Falcons.
These teams are notorious for playing at a slow pace, and Nevada, the better of the two, is averaging 18.2 seconds per possession on defense, meaning it controls the pace of the ballgame.
It also helps that the Wold Pack will be hosting this game. Nevada ranks in the top-50, per KenPom, in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
Even though Air Force doesn't boast metrics that impressive, the Falcons do limit 3's and hold opponents to a 47.9% effective field goal percentage, which can come in handy in this conference battle.
Given how these teams like to control the game, don't expect many points to be scored.
Air Force Falcons
Air Force is one of the slowest teams in the country. The Falcons rank 348th in Adjusted Tempo and average 19.8 seconds per possession on offense and 17.7 seconds per possession on defense.
Given how Nevada already slows opponents down to its liking, Air Force should play directly into the Wolf Pack’s hands.
Air Force predominantly relies on the 3-pointer, even though it is shooting almost 56% on 2's this season. The Falcons do shoot a touch under 35% from deep, which is not terrible, but most would think a team should rely on the more efficient functions of its offense.
Digressing from that point, Air Force ranks 19th in 3-point attempt percentage at 45.8%. Nevada is permitting its opponents to shoot 33.9%, but ranks 111th in open-3 rate, per Shot Quality.
Although this may not sound encouraging, Air Force ranks 155th on offense in open-3 rate, so Nevada should contest some of these long jumpers.
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Photo by CBB Analytics
Air Force has a major flaw this season, and that's rebounding. The Falcons rank 326th in rebounding percentage, per ShotQuality. Nevada ranks 56th in holding opponents to 25.3% on the offensive glass, so this means the Falcons will likely only be allotted one chance each trip down the floor.
Nevada Wolf Pack
On the other side of the court, Nevada isn't the best offensive rebounding team, either. The Wolf Pack rank 313th in offensive rebounding rate, so neither team should get many second-chance opportunities in this game.
Nevada does thrive in one particular area — it shoots 80% from the free-throw line and ranks 22nd in free-throw attempt rate. Air Force ranks 147th, so at home, Nevada will surely have the edge on getting to the line.
Building off of that, both teams tend to foul too much, so if there is one metric threatening an under, it will be free throws.
That said, Nevada is not very efficient offensively. The Wolf Pack are shooting 32.9% from 3 and 51.2% from 2-point range. They rank 238th in point distribution from 3 and 294th in point distribution from inside the arc.
Air Force may foul often, but it ranks 10th in 3-point percentage on defense (28.6%). The Falcons are also holding opponents to a 32.2% 3-point attempt rate, which ranks 41st.
If Nevada is scoring in this matchup, it will be from the free-throw line.
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Photo by CBB Analytics
Air Force vs Nevada Prediction & Pick
Neither of these teams runs at a quick tempo as both rank below 240th, per KenPom. They also like to slow down their opponents and boast some defensive strengths that should limit high 3-point percentages.
Both teams struggle on the offensive glass, so don't expect many second chances either. The under should be in play, unless Nevada gets in the bonus early. Take the under from 133 (-110), and play to 132 (-110).
Pick: Under 133.5 ⋅ Play to 132 |
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