Arizona vs Washington Odds
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -115 | 151.5 -115o / -105u | -420 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -105 | 151.5 -115o / -105u | +320 |
The Arizona Wildcats hit the road to face the Washington Huskies on Saturday evening in a Pac-12 matchup.
Arizona avenged its only home loss of the season on Thursday with a 63-58 win at Washington State. It was Arizona's third straight win and it improved to 18-3 and 7-3 in the Pac-12.
Washington is coming off a wild 69-66 overtime victory over Arizona State. It fell behind 12-0 before going on a 32-8 run to close the first half. Arizona State did rally to force OT before the Huskies held on. They improved to 13-9 and 5-6 in conference.
This will be the second meeting this season and Arizona barely survived the first one. The Wildcats rallied from 10 points down to win 70-67, but did not come close to covering as an 18.5-point favorite. That game also went well under the total of 154.5.
Arizona Wildcats
The frontcourt tandem of Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo has led the Wildcats this season. Tubelis is averaging 19.8 points and 9.6 rebounds. He has posted a double-double in six of his last seven games. Ballo is averaging 15.4 points and nine rebounds per game.
Tubelis and Ballo are primary factors in Arizona ranking 16th nationally in effective field goal percentage and 10th in 2-point field goal percentage. Arizona ranks 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency, however it has been falling in that category. Arizona had the most efficient offense in the country, but it ranks eighth in the Pac-12 in conference games. The Wildcats are averaging 69.5 points over their last eight games.
Three-point shooting has been part of the struggles. Arizona is shooting 35.4% from deep for the season, but it has dropped to 29.6% in conference play. That will be a key against Washington, which primarily runs a 2-3 zone. It shot 9-for-27 from three in the first meeting and 8-for-22 on Thursday against Washington State. Guard Kerr Kriisa made five threes against the Cougars, which accounted for all of his points.
While Arizona is trending down a bit offensively, it is trending up defensively. Arizona was 88th in adjusted defensive efficiency just a few weeks ago. It is now 29th nationally and third in conference play.
Arizona is holding opponents to 31.5% from three and 28.7% in conference games. It is 31st in effective field goal percentage defense and 33rd in two-point percentage defense. Ballo has emerged as a presence on the defensive end as well. He is averaging 1.7 blocks for the season, but he has blocked two or more shots in five of his past six games.
Washington Huskies
Washington will come in as winners of four of its last five games, including three straight at home. Its defense has led the way. Washington is 77th in adjusted defensive efficiency. It ranks 40th in effective field goal percentage and 19th in 3-point percentage defense, holding opponents to 29.4%.
Washington ranks 325th in defensive rebounding percentage, which is not surprising for a zone-heavy team. This is an area where it can struggle against Arizona. In the first meeting, Arizona had 15 offensive rebounds and Tubelis had five alone.
The offensive end can also be a struggle for the Huskies. They rank 240th or worse nationally in effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, turnover percentage and offensive rebounding percentage. Washington also gets lot of shots blocked at a high rate, ranking 313th in blocks percentage. Washington ranks 151st in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Kentucky transfer Keion Brooks leads the team 17.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. He scored 22 points in the win over Arizona State. Cole Bajema averages 10.1 points and is a consistent threat from beyond the arc. He leads the team with 38 threes on 37.6% shooting.
Arizona vs. Washington Betting Pick
Arizona is averaging 69.5 points over its last eight games and Washington is averaging 69.8 points per game for the season. Combined, that equals a little over 139 points and the two teams combined for 137 in the first meeting. At 150, I see a lot of value on the under.
Arizona is capable of an offensive outburst, particularly at the tempo it plays. However, it has cracked 80 just twice in its last eight games. It will also likely have longer possessions in the half court trying to pick apart Washington's zone.
The under is 6-2 in that span and 12-9 in Arizona games this season. The under is 8-14 in Washington games, however, their totals are often set lower. Just four of 22 Washington games this season have had 150 points. With those trends and the way each team has been playing defensively, I would be surprised 150 points were scored in this one.
Pick: Under 149.5 |
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