Auburn vs Alabama Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -120 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 +100 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
The Alabama Crimson Tide have not looked as dominant lately as they had for a good portion of this season. While controversy surrounds the team and its star player, Brandon Miller, this team has clearly looked disrupted. In the last week, they've edged past South Carolina in overtime and squeaked by Arkansas at home.
They will host the Auburn Tigers on Wednesday, who have a comparable defense to the Arkansas Razorbacks team the Tide just faced. The Tigers have had a rough go of it lately, getting crushed by Kentucky on Saturday and losing to Vanderbilt a week prior.
The last time these two teams met, the Crimson Tide won by eight in Auburn. Will we get a similar result in Tuscaloosa?
Auburn Tigers
Auburn’s best attribute is its 17th-ranked Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. They rank eighth in eFG% on defense, while holding opponents to a putrid 28.4% from deep and 45.8% inside the arc.
In addition, the Tigers limit opponents to a 34.1% three-point attempt clip. This should be a massive factor in this ballgame, as Alabama ranks 11th in the country in 3-point attempt rate offensively at 47.1%. Auburn limiting the Tide on the perimeter is a tremendous boost to Auburn keeping this game within striking distance.
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The Tigers also rank 32nd in the country in overall rebounding percentage, per Shot Quality, while the Crimson Tide rank 34th, so the Tigers will cut into the margins in which Alabama usually holds an edge over its opposition.
Both of these teams can also haul in offensive boards (33.2% for Alabama; 34% for Auburn), yet Alabama ranks 134th on the defensive glass and Auburn ranks 310th, per KenPom.
One other area each team struggles is fouling on defense. In free throw attempt rate, Alabama ranks 228th while Auburn sits at 325th. This will probably end up a slight edge to Alabama, but given how they tend to foul other teams, this could get chippy between conference rivals.
Alabama Crimson Tide
On the offensive end, Alabama holds a 38.6% free throw attempt rate against Auburn’s 34.9% rate. Again, this might be an edge for Alabama, but Auburn being strong in this this facet of the game essentially negates a typical massive gap for the Crimson Tide.
Alabama ranks 18th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom, against Auburn’s 80th rank. The Crimson Tide shoot around 35% from deep and 54.5% from inside the arc. Since Auburn can defend both, though, they will be helping themselves out.
A roadblock to an Auburn cover will be allowing open threes. Yes, the Tigers do not allow many open threes, but per Shot Quality, they rank 151st in open three rate. Of those they permit, Alabama will have some decent looks from outside.
However, outside of Brandon Miller and Mark Sears, the Crimson Tide do not have as many reliable 3-point shooters. Auburn can match up well with wings and guards, so this could cause and issue for the Crimson Tide.
Auburn vs. Alabama Betting Pick
The major issue in this game will be the difference between the powers of these two offenses. Auburn shoots 30.2% from deep and 51% inside the perimeter. They are not an efficient offense, aside from getting to the free throw line and put-backs after an offensive board.
The Crimson Tide will have the clear offensive edge, but Auburn has strengths in stopping them in nearly every regard defensively.
Look for Auburn to cover the spread from and play the line down to +7.5.
Pick: Auburn +7.5 or Better |
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