Dayton vs. VCU Odds
| Dayton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 130.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
| VCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 130.5 -105o / -115u | -170 |
Is there anything more life altering than a home game at the Siegel Center? As CBS Sports Analyst Jon Rothstein likes to say, there is nothing quite like the home court advantage that the Rams possess.
This is a big matchup for the A-10, as the Rams are looking to extend their conference standings lead, while the Flyers can reposition themselves right back into the race by pulling off a road victory.
There are some injury concerns around this matchup — notably for Dayton –but this is setting up to be a closely-contested contest.
The betting angle for this game could very well come down to both teams' offensive performance, but as we'll learn later, that isn't quite the cup of tea for either squad.
The market is suggesting that Dayton could steal a road victory here, as it's only a 1.5-point underdog at FanDuel. But let's see if we can uncover the best approach by breaking down both teams.
Dayton Flyers
This Dayton team has been one of the oddest college basketball squads that I've seen in quite some time.
I say this because there are nights where they look like they can be a true Cinderella story heading into March Madness, but then there are other nights where they can lose to anyone.
I can't quite figure out this Flyers team, but I will say Tuesday night's matchup would be a great time to right the ship.
These two teams met on Jan. 13, when VCU won outright as a 7.5-point underdog at UD arena, 63-62.
Dayton could be without two of its better guards — R.J. Blakney and Malachi Smith — who, as of right now, are questionable heading into this matchup.
Both of these guards play over 25 minutes per night, so the Flyers could be asking the bottom of their rotation to contribute more minutes to succumb these injuries.
Forward DaRon Holmes II has been spectacular for the Flyers this season, averaging almost 18 points per game. He was the lone bright spot during the Flyers' loss on Saturday to St. Bonaventure, as he dropped 21 points.
I would expect him to get the majority of the scoring opportunities once again here.
When we dive into Dayton's underlying metrics, it's all pretty uninspiring, except for its defense. Despite being 105th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 230th in FT%, the Flyers been able to rely on their strong defensive efficiency, which ranks 52nd, per KenPom.
This team is a true snail, as it ranks 319th in Adjusted Tempo. The Flyers' entire philosophy relies on lowering the in-game variance — by shortening the game — and playing tough defense.
I expect them to rely on their length and athleticism in this matchup, which is where they seem to have the edge.
However, the injury statuses of both Blakney and Smith are certainly worth monitoring right before tip-off.
VCU Rams
It's been another great season for the Rams, as they find themselves in prime position to grab an at-large bid if they do not win the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
Guard Ace Baldwin Jr. leads the way in scoring for the Rams, averaging about 13 points per game.
That seems pretty low considering the Rams' 18-6 record. But just like Dayton, the Rams rely heavily on their defense, ranking 22nd in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
And when you're that strong defensively, you can afford to lack that true scoring machine on offense.
The Rams currently have three other players who average above 10 points per game, and all of them come from their frontcourt. Brandon Johns Jr., Jalen Deloach and Jamir Watkins are all apart of that aforementioned group.
The Rams aren't a true snail, but they do rank outside the top 100 in Adjusted Tempo.
They also have struggled mightily from the charity stripe, only averaging 71% as a team on the season, which lands them outside the top 200.
I expect the Rams to lean heavily on their home court advantage and guards, especially with the injury situation circulating in the Flyers' backcourt.
If the Rams' defense can hold the Flyers to less than 69 points, there's a very good chance they come out with the victory. They are 17-3 when their opponents score less than 69.
Dayton vs. VCU Betting Pick
I was ready to back the Rams here before I saw the lines open. I was a bit concerned when the spread opened so short.
I also do not feel comfortable backing Dayton here in what deems to be a lower-variance type of matchup with limited possessions. Plus, the Flyers' injury situation concerns me.
Considering all of these factors — and given what we know about both of these teams — I really like the under in this game.
Both teams struggle at the free-throw line, and I do like what these squads bring to the table defensively.
Sit back, crack open a cold one and watch these heated rivals grind out a defensive clinic Tuesday evening at the Siegel Center.
Pick: Under 129 |
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