Florida vs Kansas State Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 139.5 -110o / -110u | +158 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 139.5 -110o / -110u | -192 |
Saturday's matchup between Florida and Kansas State is a part of a 10-game Big-12/SEC Challenge that will give college basketball fans exceptional insight into how these conferences stack up on a national stage.
For a full breakdown of all 10 games, check out my Big-12/SEC Challenge game-by-game preview.
Florida comes into this matchup with a big opportunity to get a resume-boosting win which would put the Gators back in the NCAA Tournament conversation.
According to many, Florida's 12-8 record has it slated to be one of the first teams to miss the tournament, unless they improve before March.
On the other side, Kansas State is in the driver's seat in a highly contested Big-12 race. The Wildcats are 6-2 in conference and tied with Texas and Iowa State for first place.
This will be an interesting matchup between a Kansas State team driven by its offense, and a Florida team that relies heavily on its defense.
In order to pick see which team will prevail, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Florida vs. Kansas State.
Florida Gators
Much of what the Gators have been able to accomplish this season runs through senior center Colin Castleton. The 6'11" Florida native leads the team with an average of 15 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.
Colin Castleton did it all in @GatorsMBK's win over No. 20 Mizzou 🔥
🐊 16 PTS
🐊 13 REB
🐊 6 AST pic.twitter.com/yKmDJuT02x— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) January 15, 2023
Castleton's production on the offensive end will be important against a Kansas State team giving up 53.9% of its points on the interior. Although, what will be even more critical is the production Florida is able to generate around Castleton.
Florida's offense ranks 120th in adjusted efficiency due to an inability to stretch the floor. The Gators only attempt 28.7% of their shots from outside.
This limited success from the perimeter is important as the Gators go up against a Kansas State defense that is only allowing 25.5% of their opponents' points to come from beyond the arc.
Overall, I believe Kansas State will force Castleton to beat it by himself and, as a result, will limit the Gators' offensive production.
Kansas State Wildcats
Senior forward Keyontae Johnson playing against his former team will be an important storyline for Kansas State. That has particular relevance given the success Johnson has had this season.
Johnson leads the Wildcats with an average of 18.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. The additional motivation that will come from playing against his former team can't hurt this Kansas State offense.
In his first season since his collapse in 2020, Keyontae Johnson, who previously played for Florida, hits the game-winning shot to beat No. 2 Kansas.
Love it.pic.twitter.com/wqHcbFU7Ps
— Tristan Pharis (@TristanUda) January 18, 2023
Overall, the Wildcats have shown a balanced offensive attack, ranking 30th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (113.6). This efficiency is a direct result of the Wildcats incredible ability to share the basketball. In fact, 65.5% of Kansas State's points are scored via an assist, the seventh-highest rate in the country.
Markquis Nowell leads this assist-driven offense and has the second-highest assist rate in the country (43.4%), resulting in 8.3 assists per game.
Behind the back into a no look pass 🤯
Markquis Nowell having fun out there 🔥
(via @KStateMBB)
pic.twitter.com/jpzs79neSm— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) January 21, 2023
The Wildcats impressive offense will be tested against a Florida team playing competent defense.
The Gators rank 13th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency by limiting assists and defending the perimeter. Florida only allows its opponents to take 31.2% of their shots from behind the 3-point line, the 23rd-lowest rate in the country. In addition, the Gators limit their opponents to just 46.9% of baskets being scored off an assist.
Although the Kansas State offense has been potent this season, look for the Wildcats to come back down to earth against a stout Florida defense.
Florida vs. Kansas State Betting Pick
Although Kansas State's offense has been a major reason the Wildcats sit at the top of the Big-12 standings, they are going up against a Florida team that loves to turn games into close, low-scoring affairs.
Given how the Gators will want to set up Castleton in the half-court, and their ability to limit an assist driven Kansas State offense, I believe there is value on the under.
