Gonzaga vs. Loyola Marymount Odds
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -115 | 155.5 -110o / -110u | -385 |
| Loyola Marymount Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -105 | 155.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
Could another upset be brewing? The Gonzaga Bulldogs will travel to Gersten Pavilion to take on the LMU Lions, where they will look to avenge their loss last month.
The Lions shockingly snapped Gonzaga's 75-game home winning streak, so this is another golden opportunity to add to what has already been a solid season for the program.
I'd like to assume that if Gonzaga wants to retain a higher seed in the NCAA tournament that it realizes how important it is to bounce back here.
In years past, the WCC schedule for the Zags was essentially just a tune-up for the tournament in March. That certainly hasn't been the case this year, as the Zags are in jeopardy of losing the regular season title, as they currently trail Saint Mary's by one game.
This is an interesting game to handicap, as there are a couple of betting angles that I'd be comfortable attacking.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Ho hum. Another Zags breakdown means I get to talk about Drew Timme and how he's been the anchor for this Gonzaga program for over three seasons now.
But I'm not going to spend too much time focusing on specific players here, because the handicap of this game will be focused on one category: free throws.
The Zags' downfall this season has been their poor performance at the charity stripe. They currently rank 239th in the country in FT%, and you can argue that is the main reason they suffered both of their conference losses.
The Bulldogs also currently have a -16.46 record-luck, according to ShotQuality, so it's safe to say they're due for some negative regression.
With all of that being said, I think Mark Few will have this group focused, and I would expect them to be extra aggressive on the defensive side of the floor.
Loyola Marymount Lions
What a terrific turnaround it's been for the Lions' program. After finishing with a 3-12 WCC record last season, the Lions find themselves with a 7-6 record in conference play, including the aforementioned upset over Gonzaga last month.
Not only that, but the Lions have also defeated Saint Mary's, which finds itself at the top of the WCC standings.
Cam Shelton (20 PPG) may be one of the most underrated guards in America, as he's been absolutely sensational for the Lions this season.
Diving into the metrics, the Lions find themselves in the middle of the pack in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency, but the key stat that I want to point out is their free-throw shooting.
As I mentioned previously, poor free-throw shooting was what stuck out the most in this handicap. The Lions are 305th in free-throw shooting. This is a huge concern heading into this matchup, since I think it'll be a tight game throughout.
The Lions' tempo is drastically different compared to the Zags, as they move at a snail's pace on offense.
Their strategy heading into this matchup will be to limit the number of possessions they allow Gonzaga to have and make this a lower-variance type of affair.
Gonzaga vs. Loyola Marymount Betting Pick
This is a bit scary, but I really like the under in this game. You can grab it right now at 154.5 on FanDuel.
The first matchup between these two teams had a total open at 158.5, and the game landed at 135.
The market has slightly adjusted here, but I still think there's value on this under.
The Lions will be looking to slow down the tempo of this game and both teams struggle at the free-throw line, making it more likely that this total will go below the number.
I do expect Gonzaga to be uber-focused and sharp here, but I think the numbers suggest it's still due for some negative regression offensively.
Pick: Under 154.5 (Play to 149.5) |
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