Illinois vs. Indiana Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -102 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | +202 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -120 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
Both Illinois and Indiana are coming off of tough losses, which means one thing is certain: there will be plenty of defensive intensity in this matchup.
These teams match up Saturday and will likely be ready for each other.
Expect both teams to step up on defense and turn this into a classic Big Ten battle.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois typically defends well inside the arc, which is where the Hoosiers get most of their points. That's where they love to get Trayce Jackson-Davis touches.
This was not the case the last time these teams met, as Jackson-Davis had a career night.
That said, Brad Underwood — head coach of the Illini — tried making some adjustments the other night that fell short. He did get Dain Dainja off the floor in exchange for Ty Rodgers, who is a much better defender.
This is a defensive highlight show by Ty Rodgers.
Great shot contest while trailing a defender. Then players will often stop and watch, but he continues to attack the basketball while it’s in flight by crashing in and securing the rebound before a Rutgers player could get it. pic.twitter.com/MNS5fDNzJv
— Hoop Informatics 🏀📊🎥 (@HoopInformatics) February 11, 2023
If the Hoosiers get the ball out on the perimeter, they are in for a tall task because the Illini only yield a 31.4% 3-point attempt clip, which ranks 27th in the NCAA.
Since Indiana gets nearly 60% of its points on 2s and ranks 350th in 3-point attempt percentage, the Hoosiers will probably stick to their usual game plan.
Usually, the Illini thrive in regards to 2-point defense and limit teams to 44% shooting on 2s. They rank third in the NCAA in points per possession (PPP) at the rim with only 1.07, per ShotQuality.
They also rank third in defensive shot selection, so this time, they should be able to somewhat hinder Jackson-Davis' ability to drive to the rim.
Lastly, Indiana’s most efficient plays are off of cuts on offense. Illinois ranks 29th at 1.04 PPP defending cuts, so if it can contain Jackson-Davis a little bit in the post, the defense should be in solid shape.
Indiana Hoosiers
On the other side of the court, Indiana is also a solid defensive squad. The Hoosiers rank 37th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom.
They do allow plenty of 3-point attempts (38.1%), which the Illini love to shoot. That said, Illinois is only shooting 31.3% from outside the arc on a 42.8% 3-point attempt clip, so Indiana should just let the Illini take those inefficient looks.
Otherwise, opponents are making 46.3% of 2-pointers on Indiana, but the Illini also have to deal with Jackson-Davis in the paint, who is an absolute menace.
TRAYCE JACKSON-DAVIS WITH A BIG TIME BLOCK 😤
📺: ESPN pic.twitter.com/Ty7EATlPe2
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 4, 2023
Indiana should prevent offensive rebounds for the Illini, who usually can grab whatever they like. Illinois owns a 33.2% offensive rebounding rate, but the Hoosiers are restricting opponents to a 26.1% offensive rebounding rate.
On the other side, Indiana ranks 159th in offensive rebounding rate, and Illinois is holding opponents to a 26% offensive rebounding rate.
This means each team should only allow the other around one shot per possession.
Finally, Illinois and Indiana both like to get out in transition. Illinois averages 1.43 PPP, while Indiana averages 1.36.
However, both are great defending in transition. Illinois is holding the opposition to 1.14 PPP in transition, and Indiana holds opponents to 1.22 PPP.
Even if the two are turning the ball over, the defense will be there to stop them.
Illinois vs. Indiana Betting Pick
Indiana and Illinois are in the same spot, so neither will have much value on the spread, even if Indiana trounced Illinois last time.
Illinois should adjust and regress positively to its mean with phenomenal 2-point defense.
Indiana should contain the Illini attack inside and allow them to take reckless 3s.
Take this under at 147 (-110), and play it to 143 (-110).
