Iowa vs. Minnesota Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | -750 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | +520 |
Iowa and Minnesota will meet in a matchup of teams with completely different trajectories for the rest of their seasons.
For Iowa, this road test presents a great opportunity to get back into the win column after suffering a disappointing loss to No. 1 Purdue.
On the other side, Minnesota has had an utterly forgettable season. The Gophers are 7-15 overall and an abysmal 1-11 in Big-10 play. The Gophers haven't won since January 12th, when they defeated Ohio State 70-67 in Columbus. That was also their only win against an opponent inside the top-160.
To see if Iowa is able to capitalize on this opportunity to get back on track, let's take a look at the odds and make a betting prediction for Iowa vs. Minnesota.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes saw all the momentum they had built up during a three-game winning streak dashed by a Purdue offense that exploded for 87 points. The Boilermakers shot 69.7% from 2-point range and won the rebounding battle 43-23.
Iowa's defense has been its Achilles heel as the Hawkeyes rank 159th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. This lack of consistency is a result of the Hawkeyes ranking outside the top-200 in Effective Field-Goal Percentage, Offensive Rebound Percentage, 3-point percentage and 2-point percentage.
The one positive for Iowa's defense is its ability to defend without fouling. The Hawkeyes are giving up just 13% of their points from the charity stripe, but that's likely more a result of letting their opponents convert from other areas.
Iowa has been able to make up for its poor defensive play via an offense that ranks fifth nationally in Adjusted Efficiency and is scoring 81 points per game (12th nationally).
The Hawkeyes have achieved that level of offensive efficiency by scoring quickly and racking up assists. Iowa ranks 13th nationally in average offensive possession length (15.6 seconds) and is tallying an assist on 57.8% of its made field goals.
Lastly, Iowa has been extremely diligent at taking care of the basketball, turning it over on just 14.5% of its possessions, the eighth-lowest rate in the country.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Ben Johnson's second year as Minnesota's head coach has been a complete and total rebuild. The Gophers only retained 17.4% of their minutes from a team that went 13-17 a year ago.
This minutes continuity issue has been compounded by the Gophers' inability to stay healthy. Earlier in the year, Minnesota lost Parker Fox and Isaiah Ihnen for the season. Additionally, Jamison Battle, Braeden Carrington and leading scorer Dawson Garcia have all missed at least four games.
Battle has returned to the lineup, but Carrington and Garcia remain up in the air for Sunday's contest with Iowa.
Ben Johnson didn't rule Dawson Garcia out completely for #Gophers Tuesday at Illinois, but a fifth game out seems likely. "I say 50-50. Looking at our schedule it’s probably a good time he doesn’t go," said Johnson, who thinks Garcia can use this week for big strides in recovery.
— Marcus R. Fuller (@Marcus_R_Fuller) February 6, 2023
To make matters worse, the Gophers game against Illinois was postponed on Tuesday due to COVID-19 health and safety concerns.
These illnesses and injuries are adding up as Minnesota suffered one of its worst losses last Saturday to Maryland, 81-46. The Gophers zone defense allowed Maryland to connect on nine 3-point attempts, while they were only to connect on two of their own.
In addition to this poor shooting performance, Minnesota turned the ball over 16 times. The Gophers rank 261st nationally in steal percentage, allowing opponents to create steals at a 10% clip.
Iowa vs. Minnesota Betting Pick
Given the injury history and Minnesota's current form it is almost impossible to back the Gophers, even at home.
Since their four-point home loss to Indiana, the Gophers have been in a free fall.
To make matters worse, they must now face an Iowa team looking to capitalize on an opportunity to gain ground in the jam-packed Big-10 standings.
The only worthy investment here is on the Hawkeyes, assuming we get them at the right number.
Given the recent COVID-19 cancellation, the entire Minnesota roster is worth keeping your eyes on from an availability perspective. Additionally, Garcia's status will be critical as his presence would give the Gophers a semblance of a pulse.
