Iowa State vs Texas Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 136.5 -110o / -110u | +270 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 136.5 -110o / -110u | -325 |
Looking to avenge its early-season loss, Texas welcomes Iowa State to Austin on Tuesday night for a Big 12 matchup between two of the top five teams in the conference.
The Longhorns traveled to Ames in January and lost, 78-67. They have since won six of their next eight conference matchups and enter off of an overtime win against Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, ISU has lost three of its last four and dropped a road matchup against Kansas State on Saturday.
Can Texas remain atop the Big 12 standings and get revenge against Iowa State, or will the Cyclones play spoiler and sweep the season series?
Iowa State Cyclones
After a hot 4-0 start to Big 12 play, Iowa State has fell back down to earth. The Cyclones have lost five of their last seven and have not won on the road since Jan. 7 against TCU.
The Cyclones rely on their defensive pressure to force turnovers and create transition opportunities. This is a disruptive group that packs it in and forces opponents to make 3s. They allow 3s on 45.5% of all field goal attempts and allow the farthest shot proximity in the country, per Haslemetrics.
Iowa State is a denial defense and ranks inside the top 30 in defending finishes at the rim, the pick-and-roll, catch-and-shoot 3s and mid-range jumpers. The Clones prefer a slow-paced game.
Because of its aggressive approach and the fact it loads up on screens, Iowa State runs into foul trouble easily. It normally comes from the Cyclones' bigs, as Osun Osunniyi, Robert Jones and Tre King all average 5+ fouls per 40 minutes.
Aljaz Kunc is back and fully healthy, providing a huge boost to an Iowa State offense that can often find itself in a lull. He has scored 13+ points in each of the last three games and shoots 37.1% from 3.
St. Bonaventure transfer Jaren Holmes is the key cog to this offense. He takes 27.8% of shots while on the floor and is a perfect compliment to pass-first guard Tamin Lipsey (68th in assist rate).
The offense is not very efficient and operates at a snail's pace. Turnovers have been a constant issue — 255th in TO rate — for a team that relies on forcing its way inside.
Nearly a quarter of the Clones' offense comes in the mid-range, where they rank 293rd, per ShotQuality. They're 308th out of the half-court and near the 300s on both catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble 3s.
The success of this offense comes from its length inside and creating second-chance opportunities.
The Clones rarely take 3s or draw fouls, too. When they get to the line, they struggle (67%).
Texas Longhorns
It's been a rollercoaster February for Texas. The Longhorns have zig-zagged their way to a 3-2 record, staving off upset-hungry Oklahoma in overtime on Saturday.
But the positive amid this "rough patch" — if you can even call it that — is that the Longhorns have lost just once at home in 2023.
This is an incredibly experienced Texas team, which is perfect for interim head coach Rodney Terry. Amid a season where UT fired Chris Beard, the Longhorns have remained competitive and are tied for first in a stacked Big 12.
Texas loves to push transition and attack the rim when it can. It's top-25 in turnover rate and its on-ball pressure and ability to disrupt passing lines is often a problem for opposing backcourts.
The Longhorns are efficient at attacking the rim and often operate in the mid-range.
The biggest issue for this offense comes from the perimeter. While they're a top-30 2-point offense, the Longhorns' 3-point shooting takes a drastic hit.
Marcus Carr has provided a steady hand, but his 3-point percentage has dropped four points in conference play. Aside from Sir'Jabari Rice (40.7% in Big 12 play), there's few Longhorns that can be relied on from the perimeter for consistency sake.
There's not one player that dominates possession. Five players have a 20%+ possession rate when on the floor. The Longhorns are 54th in A/FGM and are unselfish with ball movement.
Because of its defensive pressure, Texas can deal with foul trouble. But this is a roster where depth isn't an issue, as the Longhorns can rotate among nine players.
They're best defending at the rim, but are outside the top 200 on the defensive glass.
From a ShotQuality efficiency perspective, Texas is above-average in nearly every defensive metric aside from catch-and-shoot 3s and the mid-range. The Longhorns are 85th in 2-point defense and 119th in 3-point defense, per KenPom.
Iowa State vs. Texas Betting Pick
This matchup reminds me a lot of Texas' blowout win over West Virginia, as both Iowa State and the Mountaineers have similar profiles.
The Cyclones play denial defense and love to double team and force turnovers. They rely on their pressure to lead to transition opportunities.
While their defense is much better inside than WVU, the similarities exist. Even on the offensive end, they're inefficient and rely on the glass for success like West Virginia.
Texas had no issues breaking down West Virginia's defense on its home floor. The Longhorns shot the 3 ball extremely well and went to the free-throw line 25 times.
Against a foul-happy Iowa State team that forces you into 3s and mid-range jumpers, the same could ring true.
The Clones' snail pace and inefficiencies on offense set them up terribly against a Texas defense that's quick, athletic and forces plenty of turnovers with its pressure.
The Cyclones are night and day when in Ames versus on the road. Their home court advantage is seventh-best in Division I, per KenPom. But this is a team that averages 64.4 points per game on the road during Big 12 play — and one game was in overtime.
The Moody Center is going to be rocking on Tuesday night, and I expect Texas to hold a double-digit lead throughout.
Pick: Texas -7 (Play to -8) |
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