Michigan State vs. Purdue Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -104 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | +270 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -116 | 130.5 -110o / -110u | -345 |
College basketball has shown there's truly no elite team that rises above the rest this year. This season has been defined by parity, constant change at the top and top-five teams consistently getting picked off. Purdue is the one team that has mostly defied regression to this point as the Boilermakers have outrun potential landmines on their Big Ten schedule.
The Boilermakers survived a difficult road test at Michigan with relative comfort on Thursday night, even though they failed to cover the spread. Purdue now returns home to West Lafayette to face Michigan State in a rematch of a game from 13 days prior.
The Spartans took Purdue to the wire as the Breslin Center and Purdue snuck out with a one-point victory. The Spartans have been up-and-down since — two impressive home wins against Iowa and Rutgers with a blowout defeat at Indiana mixed in.
The matchup isn't bad for Michigan State, even though no one can truly matchup with Zach Edey and Purdue's dominant rebounding. The Spartans have some avenues to keep this game competitive and are catching an inflated market rating on Purdue in this spot.
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State's defense grades out considerably better in the half court than it does in transition, and that's a major key for the Spartans against Purdue.
The Boilermakers don't force turnovers, which means Michigan State shouldn't get exposed in transition defense and this game should be played almost exclusively in the half court. Per ShotQuality, Michigan State is top 60 in adjusted SQ in half-court defense.
The Boilermakers also have some question marks in their perimeter defense. They struggle to defend ball screens and pick-and-roll actions, which Michigan State runs a lot of. It's a Tom Izzo staple to be reliant on pick-and-roll actions and this Spartans team is no different. The Spartans are also a well-above-average shooting team from both the mid-range and perimeter, which is a major key to avoid going into the heart of Purdue's defense.
Izzo is excellent at game-to-game and in-game adjustments, and he made a clear one in the last meeting in East Lansing. He was fine if Edey beat him with his post-ups, but the Spartans weren't going to let the Boilermakers surrounding role players kill them with open 3s if the Spartans decided to double Edey in the post.
Edey finished that game with 32 shot attempts and 32 points, but Purdue only took 10 3-point attempts and only had three players score more than five points.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue is the number five offense in the country because it overwhelms opponents in the post and dominates on the offensive glass. Purdue goes into the post more than any other offense and should have plenty of success with Edey, especially if Izzo plays him one-on-one again.
The key is that the Spartans should be able to limit the Boilermakers to just one shot. The Spartans are an elite defensive rebounding team — top 35 nationally and first since conference play began. The offensive rebounds that lead to kick out open 3s are what leads to Purdue extending huge leads. It's much harder for the Boilermakers to extend a big lead if they can't get in transition and don't get second and third chances.
There's also some defensive regression looming for Purdue. It's near impossible to be a top-18 KenPom defense if you force as few turnovers as the Boilermakers do. The reason they rank so highly is 3-point shooting variance that has broken their way. Opponents have shot just 29.7% from beyond the arc this year.
The expected 3-point against is 33%, and Michigan State is the type of offense that can generate and make open 3s against Purdue.
Michigan State vs. Purdue Betting Pick
Michigan State used a blueprint I think other teams will start to follow against Edey by not letting the other players beat you and letting Edey get his isolated post-up looks. If the Spartans use it again, it should enable them to stay competitive in this game.
The Spartans do everything bettors want from a team on the road in a hostile environment. They're well coached, don't turn it over, slow teams down and make their free throws.
Purdue has had a close wins against Ohio State (by 2), Michigan State (by 1) and Maryland (by 3) in the past few weeks. Michigan State should give Purdue, who remains inflated by a couple points in the market, another competitive game.
I like the Spartans at +8 or better.
Pick: Michigan State +8 or Better |
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