Mississippi State vs. Missouri Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -104 | 139.5 -115o / -105u | +155 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -118 | 139.5 -115o / -105u | -188 |
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have moved to the safe side of the NCAA Tournament bubble thanks to wins in six of their last seven games.
One of those wins was against the Missouri Tigers, who they hit the road to face on Tuesday night. The Tigers have been trending in the opposite direction, but come in favored on their home court.
Here's a breakdown of this important SEC contest, as well as my best bet.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Aside from an extremely close loss to an equally desperate Kentucky team last week, Mississippi State profiles as one of the hottest teams in the country.
The Bulldogs are built to win games on the defensive end, boasting the nation's fifth-ranked defensive efficiency. In the first contest between these two teams in Starkville three weeks ago, Mississippi State limited Missouri's streaky offense to only 52 points.
The line has moved from Missouri -1.5 at the opener to Missouri -4. There are no reported injuries indicating this movement, so bettors are likely viewing this as a better situational spot for the Tigers looking to end their losing streak. But I would be hesitant to hop on the Missouri train of money coming in.
Chris Jans must feel blessed to have accepted the head coaching position with Mississippi State after spending the past five years in the same role for New Mexico State, a program undoubtedly in disarray. During Jans' tenure with New Mexico State, his teams were successful in building a similar defensive identity to the form Mississippi State is now showing.
Although the spot may be better for Missouri here, the Bulldogs simply do not have the luxury of having additional capacity to take on losses. And, as the cliche states, I believe the defense Jans has been establishing will travel.
Missouri Tigers
Missouri has shown an ability to play with some of the best teams in the country at various times this season. And, given the state of the program prior to Dennis Gates taking the head coaching job, Missouri fans would have loved to hear that would be the case back in October.
Unfortunately, Missouri has also been buried in the early stages of numerous games, especially lately.
The Tigers' success is heavily dependent upon their 3-point shooting. They have been an impressive team from deep this year, particularly at home. They set a low bar for themselves to clear in their first game against the Bulldogs on February 4th, making only 26% of their long-range attempts.
They are likely to improve upon that figure in this contest back in a familiar home atmosphere. I will simply always be skeptical of the long-term sustainability for teams like the Tigers who show an overreliance on perimeter shooting.
Put plainly, Missouri has been a bettor's nightmare due to wild variance in performances from one game to the next. Inconsistency is often a trait of a young and inexperienced team. While many players on the roster are new to Missouri, the Tigers are actually a fairly experienced team.
They have been led in the backcourt by a couple transfer gems in D'Moi Hodge and Nick Honor, while Missouri mainstay Kobe Brown has been the face of this year's turnaround from the frontcourt.
The final piece of inconsistency for Missouri this year has often mirrored the inconsistency of Isiaih Mosley's availability. Mosley transferred to Mizzou from Missouri State and on paper, is arguably the most talented player on the roster.
However, Mosley has often remained on the bench throughout the year for personal, non-disciplinary reasons the program and Mosley have chosen to keep very private. And while I think many fans are respectful of Mosley and any potential hardships he may be dealing with, there is certainly a sense of frustration building as losses pile up. Mosley did not play in the team's loss to Texas A&M Saturday and seems unlikely to play Tuesday.
Mississippi State vs. Missouri Betting Pick
Mosley's ability to take the floor has often accompanied some of the best performances the Tigers have had this year. His absence greatly limits the ceiling for Missouri's offense.
The potential absence of Mosley coupled with an impressive, focused defense for Mississippi State leads me to believe Mizzou will have a tough time eclipsing their team total of 72 points. I trust taking the TT under more than I can advocate for trying to back or fade this volatile Missouri team.
