NC State vs. Wake Forest Odds
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 154.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
NC State looks to remain hot in ACC play when it travels to Winston-Salem to take on Wake Forest.
NC State has now won four of its last five games after narrowly beating Notre Dame on Wednesday by three points. The win now puts the Wolfpack at 6-4 in ACC play, and they've been doing all of this without one of their best players — Jack Clark — who has missed the last five games due to injury.
If he can't play on Saturday, we will see if the Pack can manage another road trip without him.
Wake Forest has hit a bit of a skid in its season, dropping back-to-back games against Virginia and Pittsburgh. The Demon Deacons are now 6-4 in ACC play — same as NC State — but most of their best performances came at home.
So, we will see if those fantastic home performances continue on Saturday.
NC State Wolfpack
The Wolfpack have been pretty good offensively this season, ranking 46th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom.
They hardly ever turn the ball over (third-lowest turnover percentage in the country), and when you face this NC State offense, you better be ready to defend in the post.
The Wolfpack are second in the nation in PPP on post-up sets and are shooting 53% on those sets, per ShotQuality.
NC State also plays at a really fast tempo and loves to get out in transition. The Wolfpack are top-70 in Adjusted Tempo and have the ninth-highest transition frequency in the country.
However, they really aren't that efficient in transition, ranking 246th and 11th in ACC in PPP. They also really haven't been that effective in the half-court when they aren't getting the ball into the post either, as they're 13th in the ACC in PPP.
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Image via ShotQuality
Defensively, NC State has been really good defending in the half-court allowing 0.97 PPP, which is 95th in the country.
However, since the Wolfpack play a fast tempo, their games have a decent amount of possessions in transition, where they have been struggling to defend, ranking 221st in PPP allowed.
The Wolfpack have a major problem on the defensive end of the floor, as well, as they're allowing 41% free0throw rate in conference play, which is dead last in the ACC.
Wake Forest gets to the free-throw line at the second-highest rate in the conference, so don't be surprised if NC State gets into foul trouble.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest is a really underrated offense in the ACC, as it's 29th in the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom.
The Demon Deacons do such an incredible job of spacing the floor and getting good shot opportunities. They're top-25 in the country in terms of shot selection, spacing and shotmaking, per ShotQuality.
All of that has led them to averaging 1.06 PPP in the half-court, which is the 11th-best mark in college basketball.
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Image via ShotQuality
Wake Forest is the second-highest frequency team in the ACC in running pick-and-roll sets and have been very successful in doing so, putting up 1.06 PPP, which is the best mark in the conference.
NC State is one of the better teams in the ACC at defending pick-and-rolls, so Wake Forest may be neutralized there.
If they aren't running pick-and-roll, Wake Forest is most likely running isolation, as it's the highest frequency team in doing so in the ACC. However, the Deacs aren't the most efficient team in doing so, as they're ninth in the conference in PPP.
NC State is 10th in the conference in defending isolation sets, so that is where Wake Forest will most likely have to attack them.
Wake Forest has really struggled defensively this season, as it's 92nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom.
The main problems have been that teams are consistently able to space the floor against the Demon Deacons and get way too many open looks from deep. They are 303rd in open 3-point rate allowed.
The good news for Wake Forest is NC State is currently dead last in the ACC, shooting only 30% from behind the arc.
The key in this matchup is going to be Wake Forest's ability to defend in the post. It's been decent this season, ranking fourth in the ACC in PPP allowed and are only allowing 44%.
NC State vs Wake Forest Betting Pick
This is a good spot for Wake Forest, which is coming off two straight losses and is facing an NC State team that has been running a little too hot without one of its key players.
The Wolfpack's struggles in both the half-court and in transition — outside of post-up sets — is bound to catch up with them at some point. Consistently hitting 30% from behind the arc is not going to get it done, especially on the road in conference play.
Wake Forest has one of the best offenses in the ACC — with its ability to space the floor and get open looks — so that will propel it to victory at home, where it's played its best this season.
So, I like the value on the Demon Deacons at home at a short price of -1 (DraftKings), and I would play it up to -3.
