Texas Tech vs. Baylor Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | -480 |
Texas Tech makes the short trip to Waco on Saturday for an in-state Big 12 battle with Baylor.
Baylor has been a rollercoaster this season. The Bears are currently sitting at 5-4 in the Big 12 after having their six-game win streak stopped in Austin on Monday. With the Big 12 having incredible depth this season, Baylor is only two games out of first place, which makes a game against last place Texas Tech vital if it wants to challenge for the top spot.
Texas Tech got its first win of the Big 12 season and did it in dramatic fashion. The Red Raiders erased a 23-point halftime deficit to win in overtime against Iowa State, which was the largest comeback in school history.
Texas Tech is probably out of the NCAA Tournament picture unless it goes on a crazy run to end the season or wins the Big 12 tourney. The Red Raiders are more playing more for pride than anything at this point in the season.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders have been one of the unluckiest teams in college basketball this season. They are 1-8 in the Big 12, but five of their eight losses have come by seven points or fewer. The reality is they flat-out have had some bad shooting luck, as they're shooting well below where they should be during conference play.
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Image Via ShotQuality
A lot of the the Texas Tech offense is run through ball screens that ultimately end with a shot at the rim. The Red Raiders are a top 100 frequency team in both of those and they are doing it at high level, ranking fourth in PPP in both pick & roll and finishing at the rim.
The problem that Texas Tech has run into is it is turning the ball over at a very high rate, ranking 276th in the nation in turnover percentage, per KenPom.
Defensively, Texas Tech turns opponents over with the best of them. That was on display on Monday night when the Red Raiders forced Iowa State into a whopping 17 turnovers.
TEXAS TECH (-2.5) COMES BACK FROM DOWN 23 POINTS TO COVER IN OVERTIME 😳pic.twitter.com/HqeXANNHZc
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 31, 2023
Where Texas Tech has struggled most is on the defensive glass. The Red Raiders are ninth in the Big 12 allowing a 35.1% offensive rebounding percentage to opponents. That's a problem because Baylor is the best offensive rebounding team in the Big 12.
Baylor Bears
Baylor's offense has been incredible during Big 12 play. The Bears lead the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and they are doing it by hardly ever turning the ball over and crashing the offensive glass at an insanely high rate, ranking sixth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.
Baylor also has a ton of scorers all over the court, including Keyonte George and LJ Cryer, which has Baylor ranking 11th in the nation in shot making, per ShotQuality.
Anyone have a decibel meter? Pretty sure we just broke the glass on that KEYONTE GEORGE TRIPLE!🙌🔑
📺ESPN
BU 62, ARK 55 | 1:21 2H#SicEm | #CultureOfJOYpic.twitter.com/MnQwR1CF0i— Baylor Men’s Basketball (@BaylorMBB) January 28, 2023
They last time these two met in Lubbock, Baylor put up maybe its best offense performance of the season. The Bears averaged 1.40 PPP, shot 48% from the field, grabbed 12 offensive rebounds, and most importantly only turned the ball over three times.
The problems that have existed for Baylor this season have been at the defensive end of the floor. The Bears are dead-last in the Big 12 during conference play in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Baylor is allowing the highest effective field goal percentage in the Big 12, is allowing opponents to shoot 56% from inside the arc, and is allowing a 71.7% field goal percentage at the rim, which is the worst mark in college basketball, per Hoop-Math. That's a big problem against Texas Tech, which takes most of its field goal attempts at the rim.
Texas Tech vs. Baylor Betting Pick
Both of these teams were able to put up over 1.35 PPP the last time they met, and I am not sure much has changed since that game.
Baylor is still the worst defense in the country in defending the rim, which Texas Tech gets to at a high level.
Baylor's ability to dominate the offensive glass and get second-chance points really was the difference in the last game in Lubbock and I don't see how Texas Tech is going to hold the Bears in check this time around.
Baylor also takes threes at the highest rate in the Big 12, while Texas Tech is eighth in the Big 12 in 3-point field goal percentage allowed.
So, I love the value on over 147 or better.
