West Virginia vs TCU Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
West Virginia and TCU both return to conference play after battling it out in their respective SEC/Big 12 Challenge matchups on Saturday.
West Virginia was able to outlast Auburn in Morgantown behind a 31-point explosion from Erik Stevenson.
Erik Stevenson in a 80-77 win vs. #15 Auburn : 31 points on 10-17 shooting, 7-10 from 3, 4-5 from the FT line, 6 rebounds & 3 assists in 38 minutes (Career-highs in points & 3's made) pic.twitter.com/OSRvwvwZ6y
— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) January 28, 2023
This performance allowed the Mountaineers to amass a 17-point second-half lead before the Tigers were able to make things interesting late.
On the other side, TCU was rattled in its game against Mississippi State due to Mike Miles' injury. Luckily, Miles' MRI came back negative, meaning the Horned Frogs won't lose the key to their offense for the entire season.
UPDATE: I’m told that the MRI for #TCU guard Mike Miles’ right knee came back clean today.
Timeline for his return is currently TBD, but the injury is not season-ending.
— Colin Post (@colinp_3) January 29, 2023
Even without Miles, the Horned Frogs were able to force overtime against a stifling Mississippi State defense.
In order to find out how TCU will fair moving forward in Big 12 play, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for West Virginia vs. TCU.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Bob Huggins has finally built some momentum with this 2022-23 West Virginia team, as it has won three of its last four games. These recent wins are crucial for the Mountaineers, who opened Big 12 play on a five-game losing streak.
These three wins included a 74-65 victory against TCU on Jan. 18. The Mountaineers forced a total of 19 turnovers in that matchup thanks to their defensive pressure, which is creating turnovers at a 21.8% rate (top-40 nationally).
TCU's inability to grapple with West Virginia's pressure will be highlighted without Miles, who has a 19.9% assist rate this season.
In addition, Miles was crucial for the Horned Frogs on the offensive end in that game, as he led all scorers with 21 points.
Look for TCU's offense to be looking for answers against a West Virginia defense that excels at making its opponents uncomfortable.
On the offensive end, the Mountaineers rank 22nd in adjusted efficiency due to their ability to create second chances and get to the free-throw line. West Virginia ranks 28th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, creating second looks on 34.4% of its shots.
This will be significant against a Horned Frogs defense allowing offensive rebounds on 31.6% of their opponents' attempts (298th nationally).
In addition to this success on the glass, West Virginia will look to continue its success from the perimeter. The Mountaineers shot 45% from beyond the arc against Auburn on Saturday, a great sign for a West Virginia team getting just 28% of its points from 3-point range.
Overall, I expect the Mountaineers' offense to continue to progress while TCU scrambles to replace Miles on the other end.
TCU Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs have had a successful season due to their ability to get out in transition on the offensive end. TCU ranks 38th nationally in average possession length, using an average of just 16.1 seconds.
This ability to expose teams in space can be attributed to the play of Miles, who leads the Horned Frogs with 18.1 points per game. In addition to his scoring ability, Miles is second on the team in total assists with 3.0 per game.
This play by Miles has resulted in TCU scoring 58.8% of its shots from the interior, the 20th-highest rate in the country.
Because of this, the Horned Frogs don't shoot much from the perimeter — just 29.6% of their total attempts come from beyond the arc (333rd nationally).
In order to keep up with a West Virginia offense continuing to progress, the Horned Frogs will need to replace Miles' ability to score and facilitate for others.
West Virginia vs. TCU Betting Pick
Overall, TCU was able to step up without its star Miles, taking a four-point lead into the under six timeout on the road against Mississippi State.
However, I believe this matchup with West Virginia is where TCU truly begins to feel the weight of Miles' absence.
Huggins and the Mountaineers have been successful at making teams uncomfortable by creating pressure on the defensive end.
On the other end, West Virginia has begun to find success from the perimeter, giving its offense a much needed second dimension.
Pick: West Virginia +3.5 or Better |
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