Wisconsin vs Penn State Odds
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -102 | 125.5 -115o / -105u | +152 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -120 | 125.5 -115o / -105u | -184 |
Two of the slowest-paced teams in the Big Ten meet on Wednesday night as the Penn State Nittany Lions host the Wisconsin Badgers.
Both of these teams are struggling right now. Penn State has dropped six of its last nine, mostly due to its inefficiency on defense.
Meanwhile, the Badgers just dropped a critical home game to the Northwestern Wildcats and are likely on the outside looking in for an at-large bid.
Wisconsin ranks 153rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. Penn State is the opposite at 26th and 98th, respectively.
The story of this game is that Wisconsin ranks 348th in Adjusted Tempo and Penn State ranks 302nd.
Both of these teams are unbearably slow at times, but a total of 126.5 is too low given how well both can shoot from outside the arc.
Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers shoot 36.8% from deep and rank 79th in 3-point attempt percentage. They have created 39.1% of their total points this season from 3-point range.
The issue with their offense has come from inside the arc, as they are only hitting 45.5% from 2-point range.
That said, Penn State does not rank well on defense, and this is because it's allowing teams to shoot over 34% from deep. Wisconsin should be efficient enough to attack the weak perimeter Penn State defense.
Wisconsin ranks 52nd on post-up PPP while the Nittany Lions rank 166th in this metric on defense.
Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl will be huge for the total here, as they can manage the block. Wahl has not been himself lately, but he's still an immense offensive threat.
Tyler Wahl's on the board.@tjwahl01 x @BadgerMBBpic.twitter.com/Pvj5sNMxT5
— Wisconsin On BTN (@WisconsinOnBTN) February 6, 2023
Penn State holds opponents to a 24.8% offensive rebounding clip while the Badgers hold opponents to a 25.3% offensive rebounding rate. This means that neither team will have many offensive put-backs considering they rank 363rd and 347th in offensive rebounding anyways.
This is one area that will affect the total, but again, both teams can shoot from the outside.
Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions are one of the best deep-shooting teams in the country. They rank 14th at 38.4% from 3-point land and own a 3-point attempt clip of 48.5%.
They have manufactured the largest percentage of their offense from 3-point distance (45%).
Penn State truly lives and dies by the 3.
The Badgers are allowing a 37% Open 3 Rate (ShotQuality), so look for the Nittany Lions to adjust.
Wisconsin is not too sharp guarding inside and out, even with decent defensive metrics. It does hold opponents to a 35.5% 3-point attempt rate, but the last time these two met, Penn State still shot 40% from 3-point range (8-for-20).
Wisconsin is permitting opponents to shoot 50% inside the arc and 32.8% outside.
Inside, the issue will be Jalen Pickett. The savvy veteran is shooting 56% from 2-point range and only stands at 6-foot-4.
He should be able to match up well with Wisconsin’s guards.
Jalen Pickett has hit his first 5 shots today. 🔥@JalenPickett7 x @PennStateMBBpic.twitter.com/LQJDoQwhwa
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) January 29, 2023
In addition, Penn State ranks eighth at 0.86 PPP in the mid-range, so if the deep ball does not go well, the Nittany Lions can exploit Wisconsin’s defensive 0.78 PPP from that area, as well.
Wisconsin vs. Penn State Betting Pick
Even if Wisconsin has a decent defense, it has trouble guarding jumpers. That is essentially the entire Penn State offense, outside of letting Pickett back down other guards in the post.
This total is low for these two teams, considering how well they can both shoot from deep. Each will display some gaps and leave the other open around the arc.
Do not expect the rebounding issues to affect the total.
Take this from 126.5 (-106), and play it to 128 (-110).
Pick: Over 126.5 (Play to 128) |
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