Arizona vs Washington State Odds
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 146 -110o / -110u | N/A |
It is that time of year when teams begin to meet for a second time in conference play. This revenge factor will be on full display as Arizona travels to Pullman, WA to take on Washington State.
In the first meeting between these teams, Washington State pulled out a 13-point win due to a 24-point performance from Mouhamed Gueye.
In the four games since that meeting, the Cougars have gone 2-2, dropping their past two contests to Utah and Colorado.
On the other side, Arizona has gone 3-1 with impressive wins over USC and UCLA in back-to-back games.
In order to predict whether Arizona will be able to its revenge, let's take a look at the odds and make a pick for Arizona vs. Washington State.
Arizona Wildcats
The No. 6 Arizona Wildcats have shown some vulnerability recently in conference play. The Wildcats have lost two of their past five games to Washington State and Oregon, both on the road.
When you take a look at the last time Arizona matched up with Washington State, you can see there is an opportunity for regression from the Cougars.
In the first matchup, Washington State was able to connect on 42% of its 3-point attempts, making 12 in total. That was an outlier against an Arizona defense allowing opponents to make just 31.8% of their shots from distance, below the nationally average.
Additionally, Arizona's offense had a particularly unsuccessful night from beyond the arc. The Wildcats connected on just 16% of their 3-point attempts, making just four.
Look for both of these shooting numbers to trend back toward the mean on Thursday night.
Defensively, Arizona was torched by the Cougars' 6'11" center Mouhamed Gueye as the sophomore scored 24 points and grabbed 14 rebounds. Although he has been cleared to play Thursday, it is important to note Gueye has been dealing with a hamstring issue.
#WSU coach Kyle Smith said on the postgame radio show that C Mouhamed Gueye was playing with a hamstring issue.
Gueye was held scoreless for the first time this season and shot 0 of 7.— Colton Clark (@SpokesmanClark) January 23, 2023
Given the revenge spot, expected shooting regression and Gueye's potential limitations, there may be rare value backing Arizona on the road.
Washington State Cougars
Washington State has had a roller coaster of a 2022-23 campaign and sits 9-12. This can be attributed to a schedule that ranks 10th nationally, according to KenPom's overall components. In total, the Cougars have played 12 games against teams inside the top-100.
The Cougars volatility is a result of team that heavily relies on its outside shooting. The Cougars take 42.6% of their shots from distance, and score 37.8% of their points from long-range, the 25th-highest rate in the country.
Lately, the Cougars have been cold from outside. Washington State hasn't shot better than 26% in either of its past two games — both losses.
Although the Cougars torched Arizona from beyond the arc in the first matchup, I expect Arizona to better utilize its size and length to limit Washington State's perimeter success.
The Wildcats are one of the few teams able to match the Cougars' size and length. Arizona ranks 15th nationally in average height, while Washington State ranks 13th.
In addition, look for Arizona to have elevated offensive success against a Washington State team that has struggled defending penetration. The Cougars give up 59.2% of their points from inside the 3-point line, the 12th-highest rate in the country. Arizona shoots 57% from 2-point range, 10th nationally.
Overall, I do not expect the Cougars to have the same level of success on either end of the floor that they were able to achieve in the first matchup.
Arizona vs Washington State Betting Pick
On paper, this is a great spot to invest in a Washington State team coming off back-to-back losses and playing on its home floor. There is even a potential let down factor for an Arizona team that has played USC and UCLA in their past two games.
Regardless, I believe Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats will be motivated to get revenge for one of their few losses this season.
Additionally, I expect Washington State's outside shooting to continue to regress, while Arizona will see some progression from the first meeting.
Combine all that with Gueye potentially being below 100% and it becomes hard to find ways to see how Washington State will find consistent offense outside of perimeter shots.
I believe this is a great spot to back a revenge-minded Arizona team playing well of late.
