Arkansas vs. Missouri Odds
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 153.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
In a rematch from two weeks ago, the Missouri Tigers welcome No. 25 Arkansas to Mizzou Arena on Wednesday night for a SEC matchup.
The Razorbacks won the first meeting 74-68 at home, but they have since lost four straight in SEC play to sit at 1-4 in the conference.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have also struggled with three losses in the last four, entering this game at 13-4 overall and 2-3 in the SEC.
Both of these teams like to push the tempo, which should make this a great matchup between conference foes.
Arkansas Razorbacks
We were wondering when the absences of Nick Smith Jr. and Trevon Brazile would impact this Arkansas team, and I believe we are starting to see that now.
Although, the issues in the recent games have all come on the defensive end of the floor, where the Razorbacks allowed 84 to Alabama before giving up 97 at Vanderbilt.
Those performances go completely against their season-long metrics as coach Eric Musselman’s team is still 26th in AdjD and 32nd in forcing turnovers, according to barttorvik.com.
Another problem has been the play on the road for Musselman’s squad, which has lost all three games away from home in the SEC. With trips to Baylor, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Alabama still on the schedule, the Hogs need to turn this around quickly.
The big question surrounding this game is which Missouri team is going to show up: the one that dominated Illinois and Kentucky or the squad that only scored 64 points in losses to Texas A&M and Florida?
The struggles offensively are key to point out because the Tigers' only way to pick up wins this season has been by outscoring their opponents. On the year, head coach Dennis Gates’ team is in the Top 10 in the country in AdjO (7th), EFG% (10th) and 2-point shooting (4th).
When you add the great scoring metrics with a squad that plays at a high pace (39th in Tempo), you have a Missouri team that can be very entertaining to watch. It has also led to the over cashing in 10 of 17 games on the season.
Gates’ squad does do one thing at an elite level defensively, which is turn over opponents. Missouri ranks fourth in the nation in turnover percentage and first in steals per game at 11.6.
Arkansas vs. Missouri Betting Pick
When I look at the odds for this game, I do not see any betting value on the full game side or total, but I do believe you can find a winning play in the first half.
With that said, my best bet is to back Missouri on the first half moneyline, which I would play to -120 odds.
In 11 home games this season, the Tigers have been winning at halftime in eight of those contests, with an average scoring margin of +8.8. This is also the same squad that ranks fourth in the nation in first-half scoring at home at 43.6 PPG.
Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have been losing at half in four of seven road games, which includes a 1-2 mark in the SEC. This same bet would have also cashed in the first meeting at Arkansas.
With the tempo this will be played, the game flying over the first half total is also likely worth a look once the number comes out. I just can’t trust the Hogs to help with any total in this spot.
Give me the home team to come racing out of the gates for a lead at halftime.
