Arkansas vs Texas A&M Odds
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -102 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -120 | 138.5 -110o / -110u | -184 |
After the Tennessee Volunteers dropped back-to-back games last week against Vanderbilt and Missouri, Texas A&M is the only team with a legitimate chance to challenge Alabama in the SEC regular season title race.
The Aggies sit two games back of the Crimson Tide at 10-2 in conference play, with a home game against a middle-of-the-pack Arkansas team on the horizon.
This will also be a revenge spot for Texas A&M, which has won three straight since its 11-point loss in Fayetteville on Jan. 31.
On the other side, Arkansas will look to rebound. It had its three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday, falling to Mississippi State, 70-64, despite the return of freshman Nick Smith Jr.
To find out if the Aggies will continue to have a fighting chance at the SEC regular season title, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Arkansas vs. Texas A&M.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Despite their place in the SEC standings, the Razorbacks are still projected to make the NCAA tournament in the 9-to-10 seed range. This comes as a result of Arkansas posting a 15-3 record against all Quad 2, Quad 3 and Quad 4 opponents.
One of these Quad 2 wins came when the Razorbacks outlasted Texas A&M on New Year's Eve. The Razorbacks had three players in double figures in that game, with juniors Ricky Council IV and Davonte Davis pouring in 19-point performances.
Although this was an impressive win, there may be some regression coming the second time around.
Arkansas was able to post an 11-point win despite being out-rebounded by the Aggies, 46-40. The Razorbacks were particularly poor on the offensive glass, allowing Texas A&M to grab 24 total offensive rebounds.
This is an area Texas A&M has been efficient in all season long, leading the SEC with an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.5%.
Although the Aggies were able to create second chances, they struggled to convert them, shooting just 34.4% from 2-point range despite 64 total field goal attempts from inside the 3-point line.
This number is bound to progress as the Aggies have averaged 52.7% shooting from 2-point range in SEC play, the second-highest percentage in the conference.
Additionally, interior defense is the one area Arkansas has consistently struggled. The Razorbacks are giving up 53.8% of their points on the interior, the third-highest rate in conference play.
Even with the return of Smith to the lineup, there is regression coming for this Arkansas offense.
Texas A&M Aggies
Buzz Williams' Texas A&M squad is in a unique position as the season winds to a close. The Aggies are just two games back of Alabama in the SEC standings, but are still widely projected as on the bubble.
Taking care of business at home against a quality opponent in Arkansas will go a long way towards boosting their tournament resume.
The Aggies' success on Wednesday night will start on the defensive end. Texas A&M has excelled at preventing penetration, allowing just 41.1% of its opponents' points to be scored from 2-point range.
This will be critical against an Arkansas team that relies on close-range looks for 59.7% of its total points, the 10th-highest rate in college basketball.
In addition, the Razorbacks rank No. 1 in country in near-proximity field goal percentage, converting 69.5% of their layups, dunks and tip-ins.
Without these high-percentage interior looks, Arkansas will be forced to rely on outside shooting, where it's connecting on just 30.6% of its attempts, 331st nationally.
The last area I expect some progression from Texas A&M is in its trips to the free-throw line. The Aggies rank No. 1 nationally in free-throw attempts per 100 possessions at 36.22.
However, the Aggies only attempted 24 total free throws in relation to Arkansas' 28 in the first meeting. The Aggies should see this number increase with a favorable whistle on their home floor.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M Betting Pick
Overall, I love this spot to back a Texas A&M team that is still in the SEC regular season title race and is also fighting for its tournament lives.
A win on Wednesday would give the Aggies a ton of confidence regarding their standing come March.
In addition, Texas A&M should see a ton of progression in a revenge spot after falling to Arkansas on the road to close out January.
Look for the Aggies to limit Arkansas on the interior, forcing the Razorbacks into low-percentage outside chances while having a distinct advantage on the offensive glass and at the charity stripe.
