UCF vs. Ole Miss Odds
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 126.5 -110o / -110u | +172 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 126.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
The AAC meets the SEC in this mid-week matchup as the UCF Knights are set to take on the Ole Miss Rebels. Each of these teams has gotten off to a solid start, but this may be one of the final times they can pad their non-conference resume.
UCF has always been the bridesmaid of the AAC, as Houston, Wichita State and Memphis usually get all the love. However, the Knights are out to change that narrative.
As for Ole Miss, the Rebels have shown some grit and are once again a stout defensive team. Although, if they are going to survive in the SEC, they'll need to show some prowess on the offensive end of the court.
So what's the best way to bet this matchup? Let's take a look at the odds and make a pick.
UCF Knights
When you look at this UCF team, one guy stands out, freshman Taylor Hendricks. Hendricks has burst onto the scene averaging 15.6 points and 7.1 rebounds per game this season.
Hendricks has proven to be a dynamic weapon and, at 6'9", has already shown he can stretch the floor. He's shooting 52.6% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc.
His prowess from downtown has formed the Knights' offensive philosophy as they've been willing to take outside shots despite their size. UCF has had over 35% of its points come from downtown, and the three-ball should remain a weapon in this matchup.
The Rebels haven't done a great job defending perimeter shots. They are 218th in three-point percentage allowed and 23rd in threes per field goals attempted against them.
However, we've seen Ole Miss make a concerted effort to limit outside shots over the past two games. The Rebels held Memphis to just 1-of-15 from deep, and then Valparaiso shot just 5-of-13 in their latest game.
Ole Miss Rebels
While the Knights are content to fire from the outside, the Rebels have a contrasting approach. Ole Miss is a stout defensive team that likes to turn defense into offense and push the ball after turnovers, creating high-percentage looks on the break.
They have a similar style in the halfcourt, as leading scorer Matthew Murrell has proven to be the only genuine threat from beyond the arc. While Murrell has a very high usage rate, he and the Rebels have succeeded at working the ball inside — nearly 59% of Ole Miss' points have been twos.
It may be challenging for Ole Miss to get quality shots in the paint as the Knights have been very tough defensively. UCF is ranked 17th in effective field goal percentage, and will also have the bigger men around the rim.
We saw the Rebels struggle against the size and defensive prowess of the Memphis Tigers, and the Knights have a similar profile. So, we could see similar results.
UCF vs. Ole Miss Betting Pick
There is no doubt this will be a tough defensive matchup, but there is one significant factor also aiding our angle, the tempo. For a team with a tendency to take jump shots, UCF is not quick to pull the trigger.
The Knights rank 340th in average possession length. While the Rebels do contrast that with their ability to create turnovers and run, the steals that lead to breaks will be few and far between when the Knights are in possession.
So even though it may be a sweat if this game remains tight in the second half, I'm taking the under as these two teams have all the answers to one another.
Pick: Under 126.5 (Play to 125) |
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