Michigan State vs Iowa Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 146.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
As we get closer to March, every game down the stretch starts to carry more and more significance for Selection Sunday.
That is exactly what we have here with Michigan State traveling to Iowa City to take on Iowa.
Losers of their last two contests, the Hawkeyes have looked uncharacteristically mediocre offensively. This could be a massive game for their March resume as they currently sit as an eight seed, per Joe Lunardi's Bracketology.
They cannot afford to continue to scuffle down the stretch.
Sparty is back! Well … we think so, right? Michigan State is coming off an impressive 15-point home win over Indiana on Wednesday, so it will look to continue to build some momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
It's safe to say the Spartans have punched their ticket to the Big Dance.
I have a lot to say about both of these teams, and I'll hint at the fact that we will be getting some nice betting value in this matchup. Let me save my breath and get right to the breakdown of both of these teams and my betting pick.
Michigan State Spartans
Guard Tyson Walker put the Spartans on his back on Tuesday, as he dropped 23 points in the big win over the Hoosiers. He will be a massive part of Sparty's success moving forward.
Moving onto this game, if you're a Spartans fan, I think it's time to face some reality. But let's talk about some of the positive aspects they have going for them first.
They continue to play terrific defense and protect the ball well, as they rank in the top 35 of defensive efficiency and turnovers per game. They also have thrived at the charity stripe, ranking 44th in FT%.
The biggest surprise has been their 3PT% (37.48). The Spartans do not take a lot of shots behind the arc, but they rank 32nd in the country in that stat.
They defeated Iowa 63-61 on Jan. 26, and they will need success from long range to steal a road win.
Despite the success of late, I think Sparty is due for serious regression. Per ShotQuality, the Spartans currently hold a -18.82-record luck even after their win on Tuesday.
Not only that, but they also rank 360th in Rim and 3 Rate.
The Spartans are also poor at earning second chances on offense, as they are 250th in offensive rebounding percentage.
The regression monster is ready to pounce, and I believe this will be the ultimate downfall of the Spartans.
Iowa Hawkeyes
As much as I love the Hawkeyes' offense, they have been quite disappointing over the last couple of games. They are a combined 6-for-42 from long range in their past two contests, and it's gotten to the point where you question if they are ever going to kick things back into gear.
Luckily for them, they return home in what I believe is a great spot.
We know how well the Spartans defend, but as I mentioned in their team breakdown, they are due for regression.
Also, I think some home cooking is just what the Hawkeyes need — they are an impressive 12-3 ATS at home this season.
Despite the cold shooting stretch, the Hawkeyes still rank fifth in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom. They are also terrific at protecting the ball, so I think it's only a matter of time before the poor offensive performances are a thing of the past.
Their edge in offensive rebounding percentage will definitely play a factor here, as the Hawkeyes are much better at gaining second chances opposed to the Spartans (89th vs. 250th, respectively).
Kris Murray was held to five points in the loss to Wisconsin, and he is simply too talented to stay cold. I expect a bounce-back performance from him.
Michigan State vs Iowa Betting Pick
You will be able to check out a few of my other write-ups on three other matchups on Saturday, but this is definitely my favorite play of them all.
This is a great get-right spot for the Hawkeyes. I believe they will be more focused, and they are beginning to realize they can't afford to continue to stumble as the calendar creeps toward March.
Sparty has played well lately, but going on the road riding high off of a huge win screams letdown spot.
We talked about the regression looming for Sparty, as their metrics suggest they are due for a poor offensive performance down the stretch.
The public will definitely be backing Michigan State, and this will allow us to get even more line value. This, to me, is a slam-dunk play for Iowa, and I think we will get a nice number due to the recent performances of both teams.
The Hawkeyes let us down last weekend against Northwestern, but I trust them to rebound.
Pick: Iowa -3.5 |
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