Mississippi State vs Alabama Odds
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
Alabama looks to continue its hot streak when it hosts Mississippi State on Wednesday night.
Mississippi State is really struggling at the moment. After starting the season 11-0, the Bulldogs are now just 1-7 in their last seven games and even lost at home to Florida over the weekend. Poor shooting has really plagued the Bulldogs during this long streak, so we'll see if they can get some of that positive shooting regression back.
On the other side, Nate Oats might have the best team in college basketball right now.
While all of the other top-10 teams are dropping games left and right, Alabama finds itself on an eight-game win streak and has won all four of its road games by double digits, including a 78-67 win over Mississippi State in Starkville on Dec. 28.
Alabama's schedule going forward is pretty light until back-to-back road games against Auburn and Tennessee in February. So, the only worry for Oats is not allowing his team to get complacent.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State is due for plenty of positive regression, as it's currently 1-6 in the SEC but won the ShotQuality matchup in every single one of those seven games.
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Image via ShotQuality.
The Bulldogs are shooting just 24.7% from behind the arc in conference play, 43.0% from inside the arc, and an appalling 53.7% from the free-throw line.
The reason they lost to Alabama in Starkville was because of free throws. The Bulldogs got to the line a whopping 36 times but hit only 18 shots, while Alabama went 14-of-18 from the charity strike.
At some point, Mississippi State is going to break out of this shooting slump. It simply cannot continue to shoot 8.3% less from 3 and 10.6% less from the free-throw line than expected.
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Image via ShotQuality.
Additionally, Mississippi State is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the SEC, putting up a 35.9% offensive rebounding percentage on the season, the 14th-best mark in the country. It grabbed 11 offensive boards in the last meeting against Alabama, so second-chance opportunities will be key in this game if it somehow has another poor shooting night.
On the other end, Mississippi State has an outstanding defense. The Bulldogs do an outstanding job of defending in the half-court by allowing 0.94 PPP, which is good for 22nd in the country.
More important for this matchup is they defend the rim and 3-point line — where most of Alabama's shots come from — at a high level.
The Bulldogs rank 62nd in the country in PPP allowed of shots at the rim and behind the 3-point line, per ShotQuality.
In the previous meeting between these two, Alabama had just 18 points at the rim and shot right around its season average from behind the arc. If Mississippi State can defend the 3-point line a little better, it could hang with Alabama.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Things are going well — almost too well — for the Crimson Tide right now. Since the loss to Gonzaga, Alabama has won eight straight games, all by double digits.
Bama boasts one of the best offenses in the country, and it gets to the rim at an elite level. The Crimson Tide are taking 26% of their shots at the rim and are top-40 in PPP there as well.
They're also a top-30 team in terms of shot selection, spacing and getting to the free-throw line, so they're an incredibly difficult team to defend.
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Image via ShotQuality.
Alabama also runs in transition at one of the highest frequencies, spending 12% of possessions on the run. However, the Tide haven't really been that efficient there, ranking 153rd in PPP.
With Mississippi State being an elite half-court defense, things may not come easy tonight.
The biggest reason Alabama has ascended to a spot as one of the elite teams in college basketball is because of its defense. Last season, it relied on offense to put up a ton of points and ranked 92nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. This season, however, it's up to fifth.
Alabama can defend both in transition and in the half-court, where they're top 20 in PPP allowed.
It's also 18th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim. That's huge in this matchup, as the majority of Mississippi State's shot attempts come from that area.
Mississippi State vs Alabama Betting Pick
Mississippi State is due for a ton of positive regression. The team that started the season 11-0 is still there somewhere.
If the Bulldogs continue to take good shots and get to the free-throw line at a solid rate, they're going to break through at some point.
This is the peak of the market on Alabama. There's no denying it's one of the best teams in the country, but this line is a tad too high against an elite defensive team — even if the Crimson Tide are at home.
I think Mississippi State will see some positive shooting regression, so I'll back the Bulldogs at +13.
Pick: Mississippi State +13 |
