Oklahoma State vs Iowa State Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -102 | 127.5 -115o / -105u | +210 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -120 | 127.5 -115o / -105u | -260 |
The Big 12 has arguably been the most talented conference in the country, and it seems like every conference matchup is rarely lopsided. Now, we have Oklahoma State, which has won four games in a row, traveling to Hilton Coliseum to take on an Iowa State team that has lost three of its last four.
The big news entering this matchup is Pokes guard Avery Anderson, who is now out indefinitely because of a wrist injury. In a matchup that will be centered around guard play, his absence will leave OSU's backcourt shorthanded.
Both of these teams have been outstanding defensively thus far, so there's no reason to believe we aren't heading for a classic defensive battle here.
With that said, will this be a good opportunity for the Clones to right the ship? I'm starting to believe so, but I think there might be a better approach from a betting perspective here.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Anderson's injury may hurt, but it could be minimized because the Pokes rely on multiple guards to play 20+ minutes per night.
Mike Boynton likes to keep the backcourt fresh, as he relies on a rotation of Bryce Thompson, John-Michael Wright and Caleb Asberry. Presumably, these three will need to step up while Anderson remains sidelined.
Looking at the Pokes' metrics, they currently sit as the 31st-best team in the country, per KenPom, and their terrific defense has them eighth in defensive efficiency.
Both teams have been poor at the charity stripe, with the Pokes ranking 218th in the country in free-throw percentage. Per ShotQuality, they have a -8.39 rating of record luck, which indicates they've been a bit fortunate this season.
If the Pokes want to leave Ames with a victory, their guards will have to keep up with the Clones on both ends of the floor.
Even though they have decent guard depth, it's not a mystery that the Anderson injury will impact the Pokes offense. If they continue to struggle at the line, they will have to hope for another terrific defensive effort in order to pull out a gritty win on the road.
Iowa State Cyclones
This is definitely an ideal spot to back the Cyclones, who have been scuffling of late. When a team that has struggled returns home to face a team that has been playing well, it often results in some betting value in the spread.
But not so fast. There are a few things about the Clones that concern me.
Before I even dive into other metrics, this team struggles mightily at the free-throw line. The Cyclones rank an abysmal 314th in free-throw percentage, which will cost them big-time as we head toward March.
Iowa State comes into this matchup as the 18th-ranked team in the country per KenPom, anchored by a sifling defense that ranks ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Guards Jaren Holmes and Gabe Kalscheur have anchored this Clones team both offensively and defensively. They will need to dig deep against this Pokes defense and carry their usual load on offense.
Iowa State is a snail on offense, ranking 310th in adjusted tempo. Meanwhile, the Pokes rank a middling 165th, so I would not expect a track meet here.
However, Iowa State also comes in with a -5.15 record luck rating, per ShotQuality, so it's also due for some regression.
Oklahoma State vs Iowa State Betting Pick
Between Anderson's injury, the poor free-throw shooting and these two elite defensive units, I think there's some value on the under here.
Oklahoma State overs are 5-0 in its last five games, which is another reason I think we'll get even more value. I think Iowa State is also worth a look here but think the under is a safer bet.
Pick: Under 126.5 (Play to 125.5) |
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