Oklahoma State vs TCU Odds
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 142 -110o / -110u | +250 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 142 -110o / -110u | -300 |
As we come down the stretch of what has been a highly-competitive Big 12 regular season, every game becomes more and more important.
This is especially true for a TCU team that has been berated by injuries, resulting in four straight losses. This losing streak has plummeted the Horned Frogs to 6-7 in conference and down to as low as a seven seed in some NCAA tournament projections.
The Horned Frogs have been without superstar point guard Mike Miles Jr. since he went down with a knee injury against Mississippi State on Feb. 4.
In addition, center Eddie Lampkin Jr. has played just 48 total minutes in TCU's last seven games after suffering a leg injury against Kansas.
The status of both players will be crucial to monitor as both are nearing a full return.
On the other side, Oklahoma State had a five-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday when it was defeated on its home floor by Kansas, 87-76.
This was the first time since Jan. 24th that the Cowboys' defense gave up 80 points or more. Oklahoma State is holding teams to 64.3 points per game.
To pick which team will close the Big 12 season with some momentum, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Oklahoma State vs. TCU.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
After a rough start to Big 12 play, Oklahoma State has quietly won seven of its last nine games, putting it in the 9-to-10 seed range for the NCAA tournament.
This success has come on the back of one of the most efficient defenses in all of college basketball. The Cowboys rank ninth nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency through their ability to defend the rim.
Oklahoma State's interior defense is allowing teams to shoot just 44.2% inside, thanks to a 14.3% block percentage (10th-highest in the country).
This block percentage has resulted in the Cowboys ranking fourth nationally in near-proximity percentage allowed at just 49.2%.
However impressive these interior defensive numbers are, TCU will be able to counter with its ability to grab offensive rebounds. The Horned Frogs create second chances on 32.4% of their field goal attempts and rank 16th nationally in second-chance conversion percentage.
This is an area where Lampkin's availability will be crucial as the 6-foot-11 sophomore has posted a 15.5% offensive rebounding percentage (14th-highest in country).
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU has the potential to make a deep run in the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments, but it must get healthy.
The significance of Miles has been obvious, as the Horned Frogs have gone just 2-5 when he is absent from the lineup. The value he brings will again be emphasized when TCU takes on Oklahoma State on Saturday.
Jamie Dixon will look to expose the Cowboys through TCU's play on the defensive end. The Horned Frogs rank 19th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency through their ability to create pressure on the ball, resulting in turnovers.
TCU's defense — led by Miles — ranks 27th nationally in steal percentage at 12.1%, resulting in the Horned Frogs creating turnovers on 22.7% of their opponents' possessions.
This pressure will be a significant advantage against an Oklahoma State team struggling to protect the basketball. The Cowboys rank outside the top 310 in both turnover percentage and steal percentage.
This ability to create steals will catalyze TCU on the offensive end. The Horned Frogs rank seventh nationally in quick points off breakaway steals.
On the other side, Oklahoma State ranks 264th defensively in the same category.
Just as Lampkin will be important on the offensive glass, Miles will be critical in terms of creating pressure on the defensive end. Miles ranks 14th in the Big 12 in steal percentage (2.6%).
Oklahoma State vs TCU Betting Pick
With the statuses of both Lampkin and Miles still up in the air, this is an interesting handicap.
If Lampkin and Miles are able to return to the lineup, this is a great spot to back a TCU team that needs to string together some wins in order to continue to bolster its tournament resume.
On the offensive end, Lampkin will be able to create offensive rebounds, which will neutralize the elite interior defense of Oklahoma State.
On the other end, Miles and TCU's backcourt will be able to create enough ball pressure to get out in transition off the steals they create.
If Miles and Lampkin are able to go, I will gladly back the Horned Frogs given these advantages.
If they are unable to suit up, the right investment is on the under, as TCU will struggle to find consistent offense without its offensive rebounding and transition offense advantages.
