San Diego State vs Utah State Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 146.5 -105o / -115u | +128 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 146.5 -105o / -115u | -156 |
The Mountain West, which has been a hotly-contested conference thus far, will see a marquee matchup take place tonight. First-place San Diego State travels to face a Utah State team that sits just one game back of the top spot.
The Aztecs have lost only two games in the conference, most recently to Nevada on the road, 66-75. Luckily for SDSU, it bounced back on Friday with an impressive 72-52 victory over Boise State.
On the other side, Utah State has been rolling, rattling off three straight wins over Fresno State, New Mexico and Colorado State. The Aggies have averaged 80.6 points per game in those contests.
This matchup tonight will be a rematch of a Jan. 25 meeting that resulted in an 85-75 victory for San Diego State. The Aztecs outlasted Utah State thanks to an incredible 54.5% 3-point shooting performance.
For the rematch, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for San Diego State vs. Utah State.
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State sits at the top of the Mountain West standings due to its balanced play on both ends of the floor. The Aztecs rank inside the top 35 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
This has resulted in the Aztecs having an average margin of victory of 7.8 points per game, which is top-50 nationally.
On the offensive end, San Diego State has been extremely effective at creating contact and getting to the charity stripe. Matt Bradley, Darrion Trammell and Jaedon LeDee all draw more than four fouls per contest, allowing San Diego State to score 21% of its points from the line (49th nationally).
Trips to the free-throw line were the difference in the first meeting between these two teams, as the Aztecs connected on 11 more free-throw attempts on their way to a 10-point victory.
Overall, I expect San Diego State's free-throw trips to regress against a Utah State defense that allows the lowest percentage of free-throw attempts in the Mountain West.
Additionally, I expect Utah State to use its size and length to limit San Diego State's interior production, just as it did in the first meeting. The Aggies held the Aztecs to just 44.4% shooting from the interior, forcing San Diego State to rely on 3-pointers.
This overall offensive regression will be significant in a matchup against a Utah State offense that has hit its stride.
Utah State Aggies
This Utah State team sits just one game back of first place in the Mountain West standings thanks to its efficient and explosive offense.
The Aggies lead the country in 3-point percentage, connecting on 40.8% of their outside shots. Of all of Utah State's points, 37% come from beyond the arc.
This ability to extend defenses has resulted in the Aggies climbing inside the top15 in adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage.
These numbers are significant against a San Diego State defense that has been lucky when it comes to its three-point defense. The Aztecs rank second in the Mountain West, allowing their opponents to shoot just 30.2% from beyond the arc.
Although that's a stellar number, 44.8% of opposing shots come from beyond the arc — the highest rate in the Mountain West.
Utah State's offense — a unit that has been rolling — is perfectly equipped to capitalize on these opportunities from outside.
San Diego State vs Utah State Betting Pick
The Mountain West title race has been highly competitive, and I expect this matchup between San Diego State and Utah State to be no different.
Ultimately, Utah State will have enough of a situational and offensive advantage to come out with the win. The Aggies are 11-1 at home and 18-2 when favored.
On the offensive end, Utah State will be able to convert the outside attempts that San Diego State tends to give up. On the other end, it should limit the Aztecs' trips to the charity stripe.
Given how closely I project this matchup, I see the most value with Utah State on the moneyline after the Aggies were bet up to a two-point favorite.
I would also look for any opportunity to take the Aggies live if the Aztecs jump out to an early lead.
Pick: Utah State -130 (Live Bet at +1 or Better) |
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