TCU vs Texas Tech Odds
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | +108 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
The Big 12 regular season is quickly coming to a close, but there's still much to be decided for a conference that currently has eight teams projected to make the field of 68 when March rolls around.
One of these teams on the outside looking in is the Texas Tech Red Raiders. After dropping their first eight games in conference play, the Red Raiders have won five of their last seven.
This recent success has been the result of a Texas Tech roster finally at full strength. The Red Raiders have been a different team on both ends of the floor with the return of center Fardaws Aimaq and guard Pop Isaacs.
On the other side, TCU has been dealing with injury issues of its own. The Horned Frogs have dropped five of their last six games due to the absences of Mike Miles Jr. for five games and Eddie Lampkin for two.
While Miles has picked up where he left off pre-injury, Lampkin has taken some time to find his stride.
To pick which team will take this crucial opportunity to bolster its resume, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for TCU vs. Texas Tech.
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU's season has taken quite a negative turn of late due to the injuries of Miles and Lampkin.
The importance of both players was put on full display in TCU's 100-75 drubbing of Oklahoma State, the first game in which both were in the starting rotation since its Jan. 21 victory over Kansas.
Although Miles has returned to form, the same can't be said for Lampkin, who has averaged just 2.3 points and 20 minutes in the Horned Frogs' last three games.
I’m sorry I let y’all down last night 💜 appreciate all the hate 🤝🏾💯
— Eddie Lampkin🎈 (@EddieLampkin25) February 21, 2023
In what will be a bounce-back spot for the Horned Frogs, I expect a progression in Lampkin's performance, particularly on the glass. A quality performance on the boards will be critical against a Texas Tech team grabbing offensive rebounds at a 31.9% clip, the 75th-highest rate in the country.
In addition to this progression in defensive rebounding, TCU will be able to create havoc on the defensive end, translating directly into offense.
The Horned Frogs rank ninth nationally in quick points off breakaway steals, which will show against a Texas Tech team that struggles when it comes to dealing with pressure. The Red Raiders are averaging 14 turnovers per game as opponents snag the ball on 10.4% of their possessions (303rd nationally).
TCU ranks 23rd nationally in defensive turnover percentage, so look for the Frogs to make Texas Tech earn everything on the offensive end.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Mark Adams has Texas Tech playing its best basketball at just the right time. The Red Raiders have strung together four straight wins, placing them solidly on the bubble, according to multiple projections. A fifth win in a row over TCU will go a long way in continuing their momentum toward a postseason birth.
Defensively, the Red Raiders match up well against a TCU offense that thrives on the interior. The Horned Frogs are scoring 60.3% of their points from 2-point range, the seventh-highest rate in all of college basketball.
TCU's solid interior offense will be met by a Texas Tech defense that allows opponents to score just 46.9% of their points from inside the 3-point line. This 13.4% difference means TCU will have to earn its baskets on the offensive end.
The Horned Frogs will look to supplement their offense through the offensive glass. TCU is grabbing offensive rebounds at a 32.2% clip, resulting in a top-10 rank in second-chance conversion percentage.
In order to combat this success on the glass, Texas Tech will lean on Aimaq, who has been a spark for the Red Raiders since returning from injury.
Third game back & @FardawsAimaq looked more comfortable in a win against West Virginia on the road.
Daws was active on defence , active on the glass, put up 10 points in the final 5 minutes , was 10-10 from the FT line & finished with double double. @TexasTechMBBpic.twitter.com/nilXjLb9gf
— Harp (@3SeedTraining) February 18, 2023
Aimaq's contributions become even more critical given the recent form of TCU's Lampkin.
Just as TCU will look to create pressure on the defensive end, look for Texas Tech to force the Horned Frogs into low-percentage shots from the perimeter.
TCU vs Texas Tech Betting Pick
This is an extremely significant game for both teams, which need a win for different reasons.
A Texas Tech win on Saturday would put it one step closer to an NCAA Tournament berth, which would be miraculous considering its start in Big 12 play.
On the other side, TCU needs to right the ship after losing five of its last six games. This will especially be an important game for Lampkin, who has been struggling since he suffered a leg injury on Jan. 21.
In what's likely to be a close contest, I believe the best investment would be to back the red-hot Raiders on their home floor. Texas Tech has the second-largest home-court advantage in all of college basketball, according to KenPom.
It has plenty of reason to defend its home floor on Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Texas Tech ML -140 or Better |
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