Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 133.5 -114o / -106u | -630 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 133.5 -114o / -106u | +450 |
After narrowly escaping Saturday with a victory over Auburn, the Tennessee Volunteers will look to build another winning streak as they head to Nashville to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores.
Both of these teams seem to be trending in complete opposite directions. The Commodores are hoping for an NIT Tournament bid at this point, while the Vols look to clamp on to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
These two teams met back on Jan. 10 in Knoxville, where the Vols won the ballgame, 77-68, but Vandy covered the gargantuan closing number of +17.
Vanderbilt is coming off a victory over a miserable Ole Miss team, so this will be a good test to see if it has started to figure some things out.
The Dores also got plenty from 7-footer Liam Robbins, who stuffed the stat sheet with 19 points, 12 rebounds and seven blocks. He will need to replicate this type of performance if Vandy wants to even think about a huge upset here.
The Commodores do have the size to match with Tennessee, but the question is what type of effort we're going to see here. Let's break down these teams and see if we can find some betting value.
Tennessee Volunteers
I watched the matchup between the Tigers and Vols this past Saturday, and I repeatedly said to myself that Tennessee has a Round of 32 exit written all over it. Personally, I'm just not that impressed with the entire body of work.
I do love what the Vols bring to the defensive side of the floor, as their length and athleticism can cause opponents into a constant scramble on offense. The underlying metrics back that up, leading the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The problem I have with Tennessee is its offense. It ranks 60th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, which isn't terrible, but its free-throw shooting could really kill it down the road. The Vols rank 138th in the nation in free-throw percentage, which may not seem all that bad. However, Rick Barnes' style suggests that all of their games are going to be true grinders.
Points are going to be at a premium in those types of games.
They're also 210th in tempo, per KenPom. But they're tremendous in earning second chances on the offensive glass, ranking third in offensive rebounds.
I will say the Vols have a very balanced roster, led by guards Santiago Vescovi, Zakai Zeigler and Josiah-Jordan James.
And of course, they have a terrific big man in Uros Plavsic. He may not put forward many offensive stats, but his gigantic presence in the frontcourt to go with his terrific rebounding and defensive skill set allows Tennessee to flourish.
I feel like I'm not alone here. I think the Vols are a good team overall, but from what I've seen over the past month, I'm really not impressed. Fortunately for them, they face a favorable opponent in this matchup.
Remember this in March when I'm tweeting about how much of a fraud this team was all year (@johnfeltmanli) — I do not trust this Vols offense whatsoever.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Oh, Vandy. Doesn't it seem like ages ago when Scotty Pippen Jr. was lighting up the box score every night for the Commodores?
This season has been far from where this basketball program was previously trending, but there are certainly a few bright spots.
As mentioned, Robbins has been absolutely sensational in a disappointing season for Vandy, and I think he's primed for another big performance here. Guard Tyrin Lawrence has also provided some stability in the backcourt.
Diving into Vandy's metrics, this team is not as awful as some may presume. It ranks 56th in the country in offensive efficiency and 37th in offensive rebounding. It's struggled on the defensive end of the floor, where they rank 184th in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.
The Commodores are also 249th in tempo, so we could have a snail race on our hands in this matchup.
Although it may seem like a mismatch on the defensive end of the floor, I don't think this Vandy team is as awful as the market presumes. I think it can put up some points here.
However, it will be important to monitor the status of guard Jordan Wright, who's questionable to play with a concussion. If he can't go, Vandy will be really thin in the backcourt and will allow Tennessee to play even more aggressively than normal.
Tennessee vs Vanderbilt Betting Pick
Vandy can hang around in this game just like the Jan. 10 matchup. I believe Tennessee is vastly overrated by the market, and despite its tremendous defense, I really do think its inconsistency on the offensive end will be its downfall.
I'm not going to take the points with Vandy here because of the uncertainty of Wright's status, but I will take the over.
I think Saturday's low-scoring affair between Tennessee and Auburn will give us some extra value on the number. As much as I despise the Vols' offense, they can find success given the matchup.
Add in the fact that Vandy should be able to hang around late, and the over looks even better.
Pick: Over 134.5 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
