Texas Tech vs LSU Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 129.5 -115o / -105u | -152 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 129.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
Of all the Big 12-SEC matchups on Saturday, this is the least appetizing by a country mile with Texas Tech and LSU meeting in the midst of nasty losing streaks. However, last I checked, these games pay out the same as all of the others on this lovely, loaded Saturday slate.
LSU has lost seven in a row — six of those seven by double digits with the most lopsided coming in embarrassing fashion in a 106-66 defeat at the hands of rival Alabama. In their most recent loss, the Tigers could only muster 40 total points against Arkansas. Things have gone from bad to worse in Baton Rouge.
Meanwhile, you could argue things have gone even worse for Texas Tech. While LSU at least has a conference win, the Red Raiders have started off 0-8 in Big 12 play. However, unlike LSU, Texas Tech has been much more competitive overall during this skid. Six of the eight losses have come by 10 points or fewer.
With a tie out of the question, something has to give. Which team will break its losing streak on Saturday? Let's take a closer look.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
It was always going to be tough to repeat last year's success after losing so much production from that squad that lost in the Sweet 16 to Duke as a No. 3 seed.
During the non-conference slate, the Red Raiders beat who they should've and lost a pair of neutral site games to Ohio State and Creighton. Then, the gauntlet of the Big 12 schedule started and nothing has broken their way.
During the 0-8 start, they have at least been close with an overtime loss to Oklahoma and a pair of one-possession defeats at the hands of Texas and Kansas. However, close doesn't count in the Big 12, which is completely unrelenting this season.
Texas Tech still has hope it can turn its season around. There will certainly be plenty of opportunities to pick up marquee wins, but the Red Raiders have to find ways to get more consistent offense and to stop having so many defensive lapses, which is just bizarre to see for a Mark Adams-coached team.
The hope is the offense will get better with the addition of transfer of Fardaws Aimaq, who recently made his debut. Although, he likely won't help any of the defensive issues. (Keep an eye on his status Saturday due to an injury that kept him out of last game).
Ultimately, they just need to start making shots, which always seems to cure many other issues. The Red Raiders are shooting just 29.1% from beyond the arc in league play, which ranks dead last in the Big 12. Kevin Obanor going 3-for-23 over the past six games has really held the offense back. If he can regain his stroke, the offense should flow much better.
LSU Tigers
This is essentially a brand new LSU team. Coming into the season, the Tigers ranked 353rd in minutes continuity, per KenPom. After the dismissal of Will Wade, the administration hired former Murray State head coach Matt McMahon.
He also brought with him a pair of former players in KJ Williams and Justice Hill, who is expected back with the team this weekend although I'm not sure in what capacity. The Tigers became a quasi Murray State south.
LSU had one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country, so there wasn't much to take from an 11-0 start prior to SEC play. However, a win over Arkansas to kick off league play gave fans in Baton Rouge hope, but that was short-lived prior to the current seven-game losing streak.
The aforementioned Williams has been one of the few bright spots along with the perimeter defense. The rest has been an absolute mess since the calendar flipped to 2023.
Texas Tech vs LSU Betting Pick
I'm rolling with Texas Tech. I believe the teams at the bottom of the Big 12 are severely undervalued right now after simply falling victim to the conference gauntlet schedule.
Meanwhile, I don't think the SEC is as strong as I believe the market perceives it to be, which doesn't bode well for an LSU team that keeps getting run off the court in league play.
Plus, most of the underlying metrics suggest the Red Raiders have been unlucky and are due for some positive regression. Conversely, LSU has just been downright dreadful across the board with no hope in sight. Things just continue to get bleaker and I can only fade the Tigers until I see any signs of life.
From a matchup perspective, Texas Tech grades out well in pick-and-roll, transition and offensive putbacks. That's good news against an LSU defense that struggles in all three categories.
The Tigers do excel in guarding spot-up shooters, but that's not a strength of the Red Raiders, so that strength is neutralized in a way.
On the other side of the ball, LSU has major turnover problems, which spells doom against a Tech defense that ranks 34th in turnover rate.
If you just want to get a feel for the disparity in where these two teams currently stand. Remove the records and focus on the 2P% offense and defense. Texas Tech ranks 29th and 109th in 2P% offense and defense, respectively. Meanwhile, LSU ranks a paltry 275th and 291st. Yikes.
Not only is this a conference mismatch and matchup advantage for Texas Tech, it will also have the coaching edge here as well, in my opinion. Give me the Red Raiders, who have at least shown life during this losing streak against superior competition, against the lifeless Tigers.
