UCLA vs Oregon State Odds
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 125 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 125 -110o / -110u | N/A |
The UCLA Bruins look to have sneaky 1-seed potential for the NCAA Tournament.
After dropping early games to Illinois and Baylor in November, they rattled off 14 straight victories and currently reside in first place in the Pac-12 with losses to only Arizona and USC on the road.
The Bruins have continued their run with the 23rd-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency and the third-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
They will play a team toward the bottom of the conference in the Oregon State Beavers on Thursday night. The Beavs sit 9-15 overall and 3-10 in the conference. Per KenPom, they rank 268th and 128th in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively, so this is truly as wide of a difference as you can find in power conference basketball.
The Beavers and Bruins both slow the game down, but UCLA should be able to dominate its lesser foe and cover the spread.
UCLA Bruins
The Bruins excel on the defensive end.
They rank fifth in turnover percentage and will carry quite the edge against a Beaver offense that turns the ball over 21.2% of the time. The Bruins also rank 15th in points per possession (PPP) in transition, per ShotQuality, while the Beavers allow 1.31 PPP in this part of the game (211th).
UCLA could cover the spread solely with turnovers and even play in every other facet of the game.
Now, Oregon State has one advantage over most teams: getting to the free-throw line. It ranks 84th in the nation in free-throw attempt rate (34.7%). However, the Bruins rank 49th in this metric (25.7%), meaning UCLA fouls less often than the Beavers are used to seeing.
Ultimately, it shouldn't be an issue for the Bruins, even on the road.
UCLA typically likes to get the ball inside. Jaylen Clark, Jaime Jaquez, Amari Bailey and Adem Bona all shoot over 50% on 2s, so this could lead to some issues for the Beavers.
Oregon State allows 1.17 PPP at the rim, perShotQuality, while the Bruins score 1.23 on average. In addition, the Bruins are scoring 0.94 PPP on post-ups, while the Beavers are yielding 0.90.
This just is a poor matchup for Oregon State on the interior, which plays into the hands of a UCLA team that ranks seventh in point distribution on 2-pointers at over 60%.
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Photo via CBB ANALYTICS
Oregon State Beavers
The only way the Beavers can keep UCLA in control is by slowing the pace.
On the season, Oregon State ranks 338th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. It ranks 324th on defense at 18.2 seconds per possession and 310th on offense at 18.8.
The problem is that UCLA ranks 253rd in tempo, 204th in offensive possession length and 246th in that area on defense. The Bruins are used to slowing down the pace already, hence the number of post-ups they typically manufacture.
Oregon State shoots at a solid clip of 33.9% from deep. However, it's shooting around 46% on 2-pointers, so don't expect it to score much on the interior.
The Beavers would have a chance to remedy that by shooting well from 3, but the Bruins rank 27th in open 3 rate. That should essentially shut the Beavers down on offense.
UCLA vs Oregon State Betting Pick
UCLA has been a dominant team in conference play. Only USC and Arizona have played well against the Bruins and come out on top.
Oregon State will not have much of a shot to find open looks, and UCLA should essentially be able to do whatever it wants on the offensive end.
The Beavers have far too many holes to keep this game close. Take the Bruins at -14, and play them to -16).
Pick: UCLA -14 (Play to 16) |
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