UConn vs Seton Hall Odds
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 135.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
| Seton Hall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 135.5 -110o / -110u | +172 |
Connecticut was one of the few final unbeaten teams in the country. It began the season 14-0 with a 3-0 record in league play.
Since then, the Huskies have regressed a bit and fallen from their top spot in the AP Top 25. They have four losses in five games, capped off by a dismal home showing on Sunday against St. John's in an 11-point defeat.
The Huskies head back on the road on Wednesday night to Newark to take on Seton Hall, which finally found some winning form by beating up on the bottom of the conference.
Shaheen Holloway's team has been inconsistent offensively, but the interior defense has remained difficult to beat, especially in the half-court.
The market has soured a bit on its rating of the Huskies and the value in fading them isn't really there anymore.
I'm instead targeting the total in this matchup between two elite interior defenses and two mediocre perimeter offenses.
Connecticut Huskies
Connecticut's undefeated start to the season was primarily built on unsustainable shooting splits from beyond the arc.
It's clear that the Huskies are a top-10 team based on talent and overall efficiency, but the 40% 3-point shooting wasn't sustainable when you compared the splits of their top shooters' past seasons to the current one.
Predictably, the Huskies cooled off on the offensive end and are now 114th in 3-point shooting efficiency at 35%.
This is about where you'd project them to be, as ShotQuality projects them at a 34% clip based on the quality of shots taken and quality of shooters this year.
The Huskies will struggle to generate open shots from beyond the arc in this matchup. Seton Hall is in the 99th percentile, per Synergy, in guarding spot-up shooters, and the Pirates are 41st, per SQ, in open 3 rate allowed.
Connecticut will instead run a lot of offense out of the post through Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan. Seton Hall's defense grades out pretty well based on post-up defense, per SQ.
The Pirates have a solid interior defense, even if KC Ndefo is giving up a lot of height to Sanogo and Clingan.
UConn should get plenty of opportunities to run in transition in this game too, but the Pirates' defense is very good at preventing teams from exploiting their turnover issues with easy baskets at the other end.
Seton Hall already has one of the worst perimeter offenses in the country, and now it'll get a matchup with two dominant interior presences.
The Pirates don't have a clear path to easy points in this matchup, unless they're able to consistently turn over the Huskies and get easy transition looks.
The Pirates grade out decently well in their post-up game — 78th percentile, per Synergy — but it's tough to see much success in this matchup. ShotQuality rates the Huskies' defense as the 13th-best against teams finishing at the rim.
Given that Seton Hall doesn't have enough floor spacing or perimeter shooting — fourth percentile in spot-up shooting — the Pirates are likely to get shut down in the half-court.
The only real path to consistent offense for the Pirates is to use the Providence method and get a ton of foul calls and get to the line often. The Huskies do foul often, and the Pirates may be able to get some key UConn players into foul trouble.
All of the fouls will help with points, but it also means that the game will be much more likely to be played in the half-court, which hurts both offenses in my view.
UConn vs. Seton Hall Betting Pick
Connecticut has played higher-scoring games of late in its losses, but consider some of its opponents. Xavier, St. John's and Marquette all have elite transition offenses, force a ton of turnovers and want to play in a track meet.
This matchup against Seton Hall will look far different and will look similar to the Huskies' win against Florida in the non-conference.
Both defenses have elite rim protectors that will force all of the offense to come further from the basket than both offenses would prefer.
Seton Hall doesn't have much in terms of perimeter shooting, and the Pirates' turnover problems create a real matchup issue.
UConn probably won't run away with this game because of Seton Hall's elite defense on shooters and at the rim, but the offensive rebounds should give the Huskies extra long possessions and the fouls could slow it to a crawl.
I like the under 135.5 and would play it at 134 or better.
Pick: Under 134 or Better |
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