South Carolina vs Texas A&M Odds, Pick
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 133.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 133.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
Two teams in opposite spots square off on Wednesday night, as Texas A&M returns home looking to snap its four-game losing skid against South Carolina.
The Aggies have fallen back onto the bubble and are looking for a big win over the Gamecocks, who sit tied for third in the SEC.
South Carolina took down Ole Miss on the road last time out to end a two-game losing streak of its own. Lamont Paris’ team now nearly has as many conference wins (10) as it did regular-season wins last season (11).
Can Texas A&M salvage a season that's quickly heading in a tailspin, or will South Carolina continue to surprise in the ultra-competitive SEC?
South Carolina Gamecocks
Paris deserves all the credit in the world for turning this South Carolina program around. Picked by many to finish near the bottom of the SEC, the Gamecocks now find themselves 10-4 and tied for third in the conference.
This is an experienced group of transfers that Paris has put together, and it’s proven to be successful.
The offense runs through Wofford transfer BJ Mack, who takes 32% of shots while on the floor. He has scored in double figures in each of the last four and draws nearly six fouls per 40 minutes in conference play.
This isn’t an offense that will wow you. South Carolina ranks just 150th in eFG%, and aside from Ta’Lon Cooper — who has evaded negative regression with a 44.6% clip from 3 — isn’t a dominant shooting team.
In general, South Carolina doesn’t find much success at the rim either, ranking 181st, per ShotQuality. Nearly 42% of all shots come from 3 and via the catch-and-shoot.
The opposite happens on the defensive end, as the Gamecocks funnel opponents off the perimeter and inside. Their defense ranks third in SEC play in 2-point percentage, often forcing opponents into the midrange to create.
Under a third of all opponents’ attempts come from distance — a top-25 mark in college basketball — and the shots are often covered, with just 15.9% of all 3s being considered open, per ShotQuality (12th).
South Carolina won’t force turnovers and prefers to play at a snail’s pace tempo-wise.
This isn’t a defense that will overextend but rather force opponents to make shots and not beat themselves. Because if they do, the Gamecocks will take advantage.
Texas A&M Aggies
For one moment, Texas A&M was on top of the world, seemingly in the NCAA Tournament field after a 16-point win at home against Tennessee. But that quickly turned sour, as the Aggies were stunned against Vanderbilt and again a week later at home against Arkansas.
Now, Texas A&M finds itself on the bubble, and quite frankly, on the outside looking in.
The Aggies offense has long been the issue. Ugly doesn’t do it justice. They are 352nd in eFG% and one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. Not one player with at least 30 attempts shoots above 31% from distance.
The good news is physicality is the Aggies’ bread and butter. They love to play in slugfests and clean up on the offensive glass, where they grab second-chance opportunities at a 42.4% clip. They draw fouls frequently and attack downhill through the pick-and-roll at a high rate.
Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford are the primary shot-takers in this offense, and both possess the ability to take over a game. It just comes at infrequent moments.
Taylor, in particular, has slumped of late, scoring 11 or less in each of his last three games. Before that, he had scored 18-plus in 8-of-9, including three different 30-plus point showings.
This is an experienced group that has few new faces. Texas A&M is more than capable of taking down any team due to its physical nature, and ShotQuality does project positive regression — though how much over an entire season of missed shots is the question.
On the opposite end of the floor, A&M has been average in nearly every metric. It defends the interior well and forces opponents to shoot over the top. Rather than blitzing the ball-handler, head coach Buzz Williams likes to play underneath screens, a primary reason behind the Aggies’ rank of 343rd in 3PA/FGA.
In SEC play, the A&M has ranked No. 1 in defensive rebounding and has seen a slight boost on the defensive end from an efficiency standpoint.
The Aggies try to deter opponents away from the rim and into less efficient shots, which has slowed down teams like Iowa State and Tennessee, among others, in the past.
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South Carolina vs Texas A&M
Betting Pick & Prediction
This is a do-or-die game for Texas A&M. The NCAA Tournament is quickly falling out of reach, and stabilizing itself with a win against South Carolina is the first step toward saving the season.
Each game is becoming increasingly more important than the last, and with losses to Vanderbilt and Arkansas (again) now on its resume, A&M desperately needs Wednesday night.
I'm willing to back the Aggies despite their offensive inefficiencies. It's been a cold couple of weeks for Taylor, but he remains one of the best players in the SEC and is extremely critical to Texas A&M's success.
Taylor, paired with Radford taking on a much larger load against a weaker South Carolina backcourt, is all I need to back the Aggies at Reed Arena.
