USI vs Michigan State Odds, Pick
| USI Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+31.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-31.5 -110 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
Editor's Note: Tyson Walker (shin) is questionable
The James Madison Dukes shocked the college basketball world on opening night by defeating the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing, Michigan.
This was a statement win for JMU, but it also brought about many areas of concern for the Spartans.
The Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles lost to Saint Louis in their first game of the year, and they'll have their hands full again against a Spartans team looking for a bounce-back performance.
Tom Izzo will have his guys ready to go, but even with the massive discrepancies between these two teams, this line leans too much in the direction of MSU. It might take a minute for the market to catch up to MSU, as it's dropped to 24th overall on KenPom.
Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles
Southern Indiana has a completely overhauled rotation. The Screaming Eagles return Jeremiah Hernandez, Jack Campion, Kiyron Powell, Jack Mielke and several others who didn't average more than 16 minutes per game last season.
Coach Stan Gouard lost Isaiah Swope, Jelani Simmons, Trevor Lakes, Jacob Polakovich, Tyler Henry and Gary Solomon. All of them totaled 67.3 points per game, so there are some shoes to fill.
To plug those areas of need, Gouard landed Jordan Tillmon from Florida A&M, who'll likely lead this offense. Xavier McCord (JuCo), Yarin Hasson (UConn), Nolan Causwell (Tennessee Tech), Javius Moore (JuCo) and Luther Smith Jr. (freshman) also join the team.
Yes, this unit looks different from the squad that led the Ohio Valley Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, but Causwell, Mielke, Hasson and Powell all will help in the post and prove difficult to navigate around.
In addition, this team ranked 33rd in 3-point efficiency, according to Shot Quality. It also ranked third in transition, an area the Spartans suffer in (ranked 250th on defense).
With those two ingredients working for it, USI can at least keep this game within striking distance of the spread. The Screaming Eagles' 101st-ranked Adjusted Tempo could cause some issues for the Spartans.
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Michigan State Spartans
MSU only shot 5% from deep in its season-opener against JMU, and last season — with a similar squad — it hit 39.3% from outside.
Yes, the Spartans lost Joey Hauser, but other than that, the team is virtually the same. They should regress to the mean in this game.
That said, even though USI ranks 327th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency going into this season, it ranked sixth in Open 3 Rate in 2022-2023. This is an area of emphasis for Gouard, and that should especially be the case in this game.
Much of Monday’s struggles for MSU came from ineffective shooting. It technically won the game with Shot Quality, but it needs to knock those shots down if it's going to be a title contender.
Similar to USI, Michigan State doesn't force turnovers. Last season, the Spartans ranked 62nd in offensive turnover rate and 343rd in defensive turnover rate. Conversely, the Screaming Eagles ranked 82nd and 223rd, so they have a similar profile.
Finally, MSU ranked 247th in rebounding last year (Shot Quality). USI ranked 67th.
Again, this is a new lineup for USI, but the emphasis will still be there and cut into a weakness that MSU has had for over a year.
JMU is a better team than the Screaming Eagles, but the Dukes won the rebounding battle against MSU on Monday. Izzo won't fix this overnight.
USI vs. Michigan State
Betting Pick & Prediction
To be clear, MSU will win this game in a blowout, but when the spread is in the picture, it's a different story.
USI should have enough shooting with Hernandez, Campion and others. It also has tremendous length in the frontcourt to combat MSU in the post.
With that being the case, the Screaming Eagles should cover this number. Take USI from +26.5 to +24.
Pick: Southern Indiana +26.5 (Play to +24)
