Just like last year, each week for the remainder of the college basketball season, I will share my favorite spots for the Saturday slate. In addition to my raw projection, I will focus on matchups, similar spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
For this week, I will highlight three buy-low, sell-high spots that all tip off in the afternoon.
For reference, I write these up on Friday afternoon after the openers come out. The market will obviously move overnight, so I always will list which price I'd play each game to.
- 2022-23: 33-22 (60.0%) +9.24 units
- 2023-24: 4-5 -1.5 units
- Overall: 37-27 (57.8%) +7.74 units
I think this is probably the bottom of the market on the Aggies, who have lost four of six.
Meanwhile, the Cats have been on an absolute tear — with six straight wins both straight up and against the spread — so I think we're pretty close if not at the top of their value.
We should get the best effort from Texas A&M in this desperation spot, especially from star guard Wade Taylor IV, who had a very off night against Auburn. He's usually excellent in these big spots, so I expect a big day from the preseason SEC Player of the Year.
From a matchup perspective, Texas A&M can exploit Kentucky's weaknesses defending pick-and-roll action (20th percentile, per Synergy) and have success on the offensive glass. The Aggies lead the country in offensive rebounding rate, while UK's defense ranks in the eighth percentile on offensive put-backs.
That will also help limit Kentucky's opportunities to get out in transition, where it's absolutely deadly.
There's also plenty of data suggesting looming regression that should work in the favor of Buzz Williams' bunch. While Kentucky ranks in the 99th percentile on guarded jumpers, Texas A&M ranks in the second percentile nationally (eighth percentile on unguarded jumpers).
It's hard to find a bigger disparity.
While Texas A&M doesn't profile as a good shooting team, it's nowhere bad as the 26% (355th) it's shot from beyond the arc, including 17% in SEC play.
Pick: Texas A&M -1 (Play to -2)
After dropping two of three to kick off league play, I'm buying the Lobos at home in The Pit, where they're a perfect 10-0 on the season.
I'm also lower than the market on San Diego State, which sits atop the Mountain West standings at 3-0 but hasn't been as impressive away from Viejas Arena. The Aztecs have benefited from plenty of positive close-game variance as well, going 2-0 in overtime against Cal and Washington on neutral courts.
They also lost to BYU and Grand Canyon on the road, while surviving by three and one against San Jose State and UC San Diego, respectively, making them 5-0 in games decided by three points or less or that went to overtime.
Meanwhile, New Mexico now has had a few games under its belt with an entire healthy backcourt, so we should see better continuity moving forward.
Plus, the Lobos' guards are the perfect antidote to San Diego State's defensive scheme. They can thrive in the pick-and-roll in the half court, exploiting the Aztecs in the mid-range, while also having success in transition, which remains a relative weakness for the San Diego State defense.
Pick: New Mexico -1 (Play to -2)
South Carolina has definitely exceeded most preseason expectations with a 13-2 start, but the Gamecocks have benefited from an extremely easy strength of schedule, in addition to an abundance of close game luck (6-1 in games decided by seven or less).
Meanwhile, Missouri has lost five of six, but four of those games came away from home against very good competition (Kansas, Kentucky, Seton Hall, Illinois). Even after South Carolina's blowout loss at Alabama, I still think this is a pretty good buy-low, sell-high spot and a major schedule disparity matchup.
From a matchup perspective, Missouri switches up its defensive looks as much as any team in the country. The Tigers press (97th percentile) and zone (77th percentile) at very high frequencies, which should lead to success against a South Carolina team that doesn't profile well against either.
The Gamecocks haven't seen much press this season, but have fared very poorly when they have. Their zone numbers also aren't very promising.
Additionally, Missouri likes to get out in transition at any chance it gets, but it's actually been much more efficient in the half court.
That's good news against a South Carolina team that does a fantastic job of limiting transition opportunities.
Pick: Missouri -1 (Play to -2)
