Just like last year, each week for the remainder of the college basketball season, I will share my favorite spots for the Saturday slate.
In addition to my raw projection, I will focus on matchups, similar spots, injuries, potential regression and other ancillary factors.
For this week, I will highlight four of my favorite spots on Saturday's card. Hopefully, we can follow up last week's 4-0 with another.
For reference, I write these up on Friday afternoon after the openers come out. The market will obviously move overnight, so I always will list the price at which I'd play each game.
- 2022-23: 33-22 (60.0%) +9.24 units
- 2023-24: 10-6 (64.7%) +3.4 units
- Overall: 43-28 (60.6%) +12.64 units
Missouri vs. South Carolina
Following a huge upset win over Kentucky, South Carolina finds itself in the sandwich spot of the weekend with a trip to take on Tennessee on deck.
Can the surprise Gamecocks get up for an early tip against a team they recently beat? I have my doubts, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a slow start from the home team.
Meanwhile, Missouri remains winless in SEC play, but has had one of the toughest league schedules to date, in addition to a much more difficult overall strength of schedule than South Carolina.
Unlike Arkansas, the Tigers are at least still fighting. They just can't seem to hit an open shot from the perimeter as they're connecting on just 28.1% of their 3-point attempts in conference play while also allowing opponents to hit at the highest rate in the league.
I think this is a good time to buy low on the Tigers, who really should've beaten South Carolina the first time around before falling by two in overtime. In that game, Missouri shot just 5-for-22 from 3 and 12-for-18 from the line, while South Carolina went 7-for-24 and 16-for-18, respectively.
I do worry a bit about South Carolina dominating the glass on both ends, but Missouri can turn South Carolina over, so it should win the possession volume battle.
And while Missouri wants to get out in transition, South Carolina doesn't really allow transition opportunities, which could actually work in favor of the Tigers, who have been more efficient on offense when operating in the half-court.
Lastly, I expect Missouri to play more zone defense after electing not to use it in the first meeting despite grading out much better than when in man.
Missouri recently closed as a 3.5-point home favorite against South Carolina, making this too much of an over-correction in an ideal situational spot to boot.
Pick: Missouri +8 (Play to +7)
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Arizona vs. Oregon
Something is just off with Arizona at the moment, especially on the road, where it has lost three straight in conference play to Stanford, Washington State and Oregon State. As a result, the Wildcats now rank 355th in Haslametrics' "Away From Home" metric and 359th in "Momentum."
Some of Arizona's issues have coincided with the bizarre recent disappearing act of point guard Kylan Boswell, who has scored just 14 total points over his past four games while logging over 100 game minutes. That includes two complete donuts and a three-point outing.
Arizona also gives up way too many open jump shots on the defensive end, which Oregon is certainly capable of exploiting.
Meanwhile, the Ducks are finally relatively healthy after dealing with a smorgasbord of injuries over the first two months of the season.
Most importantly, big man N'Faly Dante finally returned to action four games ago and played regular minutes over the past two contests. His interior presence is huge on both ends, especially in this matchup.
I'm a bit worried about Oregon's leaky transition defense against Arizona's elite transition offense, but I still think the Ducks are a bit undervalued after having to deal with shorthanded lineups for most of the season.
Plus, Dana Altman's teams are generally a tough prep on a quick turnaround.
Pick: Oregon +4.5 (Play to +4)
LSU vs. Alabama
I actually didn't come away as impressed as others may have following Alabama's big win over Auburn the other night. Despite everything going right early, the Crimson Tide still had to hold on in front of a raucous home crowd.
Alabama still has major holes on defense as it doesn't turn teams over, which is huge for an LSU offense that is fairly efficient when it doesn't give the ball away.
Alabama can limit and efficiently defend transition opportunities, but that's not an area where LSU has excelled (20th percentile, per Synergy). As a result, the Tigers should have no issues scoring in their half-court offense.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama features an elite offense both in transition and in the half-court, looking to relentlessly attack the rim and shoot the 3.
However, LSU has one of the more underrated defenses — both in transition and in the half-court — in the country, for my money.
Alabama will obviously get its fair share of points, but the Tigers can at least compete at the rim and turn the Tide over, which should lead to some easy buckets.
This bet will be toast if Alabama goes nuclear from 3, but that's almost every Alabama game, especially against an opponent that allows a high frequency of attempts. At least LSU has a ton of length to bother Alabama's shooters.
I'm taking the points here in a decent spot and matchup for the Tigers, who have lost four games by four points or less and now have a higher ceiling with Jalen Cook, who didn't play the first 10 games.
I still also think the Tide are a bit overvalued in the market.
Pick: LSU +13 (Play to +12)
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Ohio State vs. Northwestern
On the surface, this is a tough spot for Northwestern with this game being sandwiched between a double-overtime win over Illinois with Purdue on deck.
This spot is even trickier for the Wildcats since they lack depth and rank 342nd in bench minutes. In that victory over the Illini, three Northwestern players logged over 40 minutes.
Meanwhile, I think this also presents a prime opportunity to buy low on the Buckeyes, who have lost four of five.
Much has been made about their road woes, but it's not like they haven't been in position to win away from home. With the exception of the loss at Nebraska — when the Huskers just went nuclear from 3 — Ohio State had second-half leads in their other three league road losses.
Similarly, Northwestern has received plenty of attention for its home wins this season, but it has been quite fortunate in close games, including overtime wins over Purdue and Illinois. Don't forget, the Wildcats also lost to Chicago State at home and were the only Big Ten team to lose at home to Ohio State last season.
Ohio State is due for some positive shooting regression on both ends, which doesn't hurt, but this is also a good schematic matchup for Chris Holtmann's club.
This game will be played almost entirely in the half-court at a very slow pace which will suit both teams.
Not only does Ohio State possess the shooting and dribble penetration to exploit Northwestern's vulnerable perimeter defense, but they should also dominate the glass on both ends, which I believe will ultimately be the difference.
Plus, the Buckeyes don't turn the ball over, which is about the only thing Northwestern does at a high level defensively, outside of defending the post, which won't kill Ohio State here.
Pick: Ohio State +1.5 (Play to +1)
Quick Hitters
These are games that don't have lines out as of the time of writing, but spots I have circled heading into the weekend.
Quick-Hitter Record YTD: 3-0
- Valparaiso is in a good spot against Missouri State, which comes off a thrilling, double-overtime win over Drake. The Crusaders came into the season with one of the least experienced rosters in the country, so they really struggled early. However, they've started to play their best basketball of the season. They still have a horrendous transition defense, but that's something the Bears simply can't and won't try to exploit. Plus, in the half-court, Valparaiso should have success running its stuff against Missouri State. This looks like a good spot to buy Valparaiso at home catching a few buckets.
- Vermont pulled out another win by the skin of its teeth in overtime over UMass Lowell. The Catamounts are so well-coached, but they've had some miraculous wins this year. They will travel to Bryant for a battle for first place in the America East. This is a complete pace clash, as Bryant wants to push and Vermont wants to grind the game down to a halt. While Vermont's transition defense grades out as elite, it hasn't seen too many offenses of this caliber. Bryant should have major advantages in isolation and will still find ways to get out and run, especially at home. It's the other end where I really like the Bulldogs, who have graded out elite defensively, especially against all of the cutting action that Vermont uses to create offense. I'll be looking to buy Bryant here if priced as a small home underdog. For my money, Bryant has the most talented team in the league.
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