While we're all anticipating the big game this weekend, there's loads of action on the hardwood this Saturday.
What better way to find an edge in a massive slate than to capitalize on the player prop market? We will do that with our top college basketball player props for the slate.
Quinten Post Under 24.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts (-120)
Boston College vs. Duke | 2 p.m. ET
If you've read my betting guide for the Boston College-Duke matchup this afternoon, you'd know that the Eagles' big man is in for a battle.
Quinten Post is the top option for the Eagles on the offensive end, but today, he'll be contending with two big men from Duke who can match his athleticism.
Not only will the combination of Kyle Filipowski and Mark Mitchell make it hard for Post to make an impact on the scoreboard, but they'll keep him off the glass as well. The Blue Devils have a massive rebounding edge, and their two big men are a reason for their gaudy numbers.
In addition to the matchup, Post has begun to regress over this total of late. While he has a season-long hit rate of 62%, we've seen him go under in four of his last 10 matchups. That points to ACC opposition game planning to stop him specifically, and teams having the talent to execute their plan, much like we'll see today.
Fade Boston College's big man.
Pick: Quinten Post Under 24.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts (-120)
Olivier Nkamhoua Over 1.5 3s Made (+210)
Michigan vs. Nebraska | 6:30 p.m. ET
We go from the ACC to the Big Ten, where the Michigan Wolverines are set to take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers. While the Wolverines are sizable underdogs, they have an avenue to hang around in this matchup, and it's through their shooting from beyond the arc.
Nebraska's weak point defensively has been on the perimeter. The Huskers are 150th in 3-point shooting percentage, and over 37% of the points they've surrendered have come from downtown, which is the 14th-highest rate in the nation.
One Wolverine set to capitalize on this is Olivier Nkamhoua. Nkamhoua has been a tremendous addition to the roster, and his long-range prowess has been on display this season.
He's shooting over 35% from deep and has eclipsed his posted line — over 0.5 3s made — 74% of the time this year. However, his odds of doing so again are heavily juiced.
If you go one up from that, his hit rate drops to 39%. That equates to implied odds of +154.
A closer look shows that Nkamhoua has hit multiple 3s in more games than he's hit just one. So, with a price nearly 60 cents above his implied price, we have to capitalize.
Pick: Olivier Nkamhoua Over 1.5 3s Made (+210)
Malik Reneau Over 23.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts (+100)
Indiana vs. Purdue | 8 p.m. ET
Malik Reneau has put the Hoosiers on his back lately, as we've seen him soar over this combo total in eight of his last 10 games.
However, on paper, he has an assignment in front of him that's quite literally a tall task in Zach Edey of the Purdue Boilermakers.
The reason why I say on paper is that Edey is projected to dominate Reneau in all the categories we need him to produce by protecting the rim and dominating the glass.
Indiana has a seven-footer of its own in Kel'el Ware, who'll handle Edey a majority of the time.
This should open things up for Reneau — particularly on the defensive glass — but he'll also have a size edge on any Purdue forward that matches up with him.
Indiana is going to have to get its production from someone, and as we've seen lately, all signs point to Reneau stuffing the stat sheet, even in a tough matchup.
