Mike Calabrese and Tanner McGrath are back for another edition of our Pick & Roll. The dynamic duo has college basketball predictions for Saturday.
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McGrath's 2 Saturday Picks
Northwestern vs. Wisconsin
A few weeks ago, Northwestern downed Purdue at home in overtime behind 31 points from heroic point guard Boo Buie.
Defending National Player of the Year Zach Edey dropped a whopping 35 points, but he was under pressure all game. The Wildcats hacked him, sending him to the line 20 times, but managed to hold him to a reasonable 10-for-17 shooting from 2-point range.
That’s what Northwestern does – protect the paint. The Wildcats started winning games once Chris Collins implemented a compact, four-in, paint-hovering interior defense anchored by 7-foot Matt Nicholson.
Northwestern’s allowing just 25 paint points per game, ranking in the 94th percentile of D-I teams. The Wildcats only allow 22 field goal attempts in the paint or at the rim, ranking well above average. They allow the 29th-lowest post-up possessions per game (3.5).
The Wildcats are an elite post defense because they ensure they’re an elite post defense. They’ll defend the post before anything else.
That’ll play well against Wiscy’s post-heavy and post-only offense. The Badgers run everything through Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl in the post, and they use that to invert the floor and open up driving lines and perimeter shots for AJ Storr (15 points per game).
Northwestern should throw Wisconsin’s offense entirely out of whack. If the Badgers can't funnel offense through the post, I don't know where points will be scored.
On the other end of the floor, the Wildcats should get Boo Buie going in the pick-and-roll. Theoretically, Greg Gard’s modified pack-line defense should be good against ball screens, but the Badgers’ dribble-drive defensive metrics are questionable at best (.79 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed, 38th percentile).
Aside from Buie ball-screen sets, the ‘Cats utilize secondary off-ball screens and hand-off actions to pop open Ty Berry and Nick Martinelli from deep (combined 42.5% from 3). The Cats will cut, and Buie is good at hitting them. Buie's also happy to peddle in the mid-range with his elite pull-up ability.
The Badgers’ defensive metrics against secondary actions are also shaky, although that’s more characteristic of a pack line. They rank in the 18th percentile of D-I teams in off-ball screen PPP allowed (1.03) and in the 36th percentile in cutting PPP allowed (.83).
Even worse, the Badgers struggle to defend one-on-one (232nd in isolation PPP allowed, .86) against mid-range shooters (193rd in mid-range PPP allowed, .78).
The pack line is meant to force ball-handlers into shooters, but Buie is happy to pull up over the top. And he could cook the Badgers if he breaks the pack line, as the numbers suggest he should.
Also, it’s time for Wisconsin to lose a game. The Badgers are riding high as winners of 10 of their past 11, including a 4-0 conference record. But this wild hot streak has probably inflated them in the markets – most projection systems I trust project the spread closer to six than double-digits.
Everyone loses eventually. I think Wisconsin’s time is now in a tough schematic matchup against Boo Buie and the Compact Cats. After all, the Badgers lost both matchups to the Wildcats last year, including a 54-52 defeat in Madison.
Pick: Northwestern +8.5 (Play to +7)
Binghamton vs. Albany
Binghamton is the nation’s cut-heaviest offense. Nobody cuts more than the Bearcats, and they’ve excelled at doing so now that Syracuse transfer point guard Symir Torrence is running the show.
Torrence was a bench piece at the high-major level but has excelled at the low-major, boasting a gaudy 38% assist rate and dishing out seven dimes a night. He’s twice hit double-digit assists in a game, peaking with a 13-assist performance against Niagara in mid-December.
He sees the floor so well in this scheme. He’s consistently hitting Tariq Balogun, Tymu Chenery and Armon Harried in stride, and all three are generating over 1.1 PPP on these sets. It’s poetry in motion.
Albany can’t stop cutters. The Danes play straight-up, aggressive, pressure-happy man-to-man defense but fail to keep pace when guys sneak behind them. They’re allowing 1.18 PPP to cutters, ranking 213th nationally.
While they’ve run guys off the 3-point line (11th nationally in 3-point rate allowed) with their aggressive play, the Danes haven’t protected the interior, allowing a whopping 40 paint points per game (third percentile). Guys cut behind the perimeter defenders and consistently cash in.
Watch out for Balogun in this matchup. Although he’s improved, Danes center Jonathan Beagle isn’t that imposing of an interior defender. Binghamton’s big man should eat on drop-cuts and post-ups.
I’d also watch out for Chenery on the wing, as he’s dropping 15 points per game and 7.5 paint points per game while generating five free-throw attempts per game. Torrence will hit him running downhill, and he should score against or get fouled by the Danes’ poor, hack-prone paint defenders (247th in free-throw rate allowed).
Albany’s defense looks good on the surface, but the metrics are inflated due to 3-point luck. Opponents are shooting just 27% from 3 and scoring .85 PPP on unguarded jumpers even though the Danes rank 208th nationally in Open 3 rate, with a whopping 88% of opposing catch-and-shoot opportunities coming unguarded. ShotQuality projects opponents should be shooting 5% higher from 3 based on the "quality" of attempts.
Once more 3s fall, Albany’s defensive metrics will fall off a cliff, and the porous interior defense will sink the Danes in AmEast play.
On the other end of the court, Albany is fun to watch because it’s a dynamic, up-tempo, rim-running offense spearheaded by several versatile playmakers. Beagle plays like an oversized guard. Point guard Sebastian Thomas is speedy and boasts a 27% assist rate. The wing core of Amar’e Marshall, Tyler Bertram and Marcus Jackson are shooting a combined 33% from 3.
Albany boasts a lot of young, high-upside athletic talent, and everyone is improving in Dwayne Killings’ third year.
That said, Binghamton might have the league’s best interior defense. Maybe second best behind Maine.
Balogun was stuck behind small-ball five Christian Hinckson last season, but he’s now thriving in the starting center role. He’s re-found the shot-blocking prowess that made him so imposing at Eastern Kentucky, is tremendous against post-up assets (.30 PPP allowed, 17th nationally) and spearheads a Bearcat defense that ranks 85th nationally in 2-point defense (47%).
I think Balogun can win his battle with Beagle on both ends, which'll go a long way in deciding this matchup.
The Bearcats have also been rock-solid defending in the open court, allowing only .93 transition PPP (75th percentile).
So, Albany can try to run the floor and attack the rim, but don’t expect much against Balogun and Co. Besides, the Danes are an inefficient interior offense, ranking 262nd nationally in at-the-rim PPP (1.09) while shooting only 55% at the cup (10th percentile).
One final point regarding Binghamton: The Bearcats are due for two-way shooting regression.
ShotQuality projects the Bearcats for about 2% of positive shooting regression from 3 on offense and 3% on defense, based on the “quality” of attempts taken and allowed. It’s slim margins, but combined, it’s enough for me to consider the Bearcats undervalued.
Even better, the Bearcats are closing out on 76% of catch-and-shoot opportunities, but opponents are generating 1.00 PPP on those sets, the nation’s 92nd-highest mark. More guarded jumpers are bound to brick, where Balogun will eat ‘em up.
It’s also worth mentioning that this is an entirely new team. Head coach Levell Sanders lost his two highest-usage guards this offseason – Jacob Falko and John McGriff – alongside his starting center, Hinckson. The Bearcats are working on a new roster with new primary pieces, and we can reasonably expect them to improve as they build chemistry and the season progresses. Hopefully, that starts on Saturday in Albany.
Altogether, the Bearcats are undervalued, the Danes are overvalued, and Binghamton matches up excellently with Albany both ways. There’s a reason the ‘Cats won and covered both matchups last year.
The projections agree with my regression analysis, with ShotQuality projecting this game as a pick.
There’s loads of value with the Bearcats, and we’ll be betting them plenty down the stretch.
Author’s note: Balogun has been in and out of the lineup over the past few weeks. I expect he plays, but I’d also immediately buy out of my Binghamton positions if he didn't. So, monitor the injury report closely before wagering.
Pick: Binghamton +4 | Playable at number
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Calabrese's 2 Saturday Picks
Western Carolina vs. Mercer
The SoCon has produced some great Cinderellas over the years.
The Chattanooga Mocs made a magical run to the Sweet 16 in 1997, only to be one-upped by Steph Curry and the Davidson Wildcats a decade later. While Curry and Bob McKillop’s Elite Eight appearance in ‘07 remains the best in conference history, this league continues to churn out dangerous teams in March.
This season, that team could be Western Carolina.
The Catamounts are now 14-2 SU and a profitable 8-5 ATS. They have quality wins over McNeese and Vanderbilt while beating Notre Dame by ten in South Bend.
Vonterius Woolbright is their do-everything superstar, averaging an absurd 21/12/5 this season. His versatile play landed him on the Lou Henson Award Mid-Season Watch List. The Henson Award is given to the top mid-major basketball player.
Woolbright’s maturation from an inefficient scorer two years ago to a walking double-double (13 out of 16 games) this season mirrors the program’s glow-up under head coach Justin Gray. The first-time head coach and former Wake Forest star rebuilt this program from the ground up. After an 11-win debut, WCU finished fourth in the conference last season and took Furman to overtime in the SoCon Tournament.
If the current trend of quality teams struggling on the road scares you, consider some of the advantages the Catamounts have over the Bears in this matchup.
Let’s start with the glass. Mercer is already a below-average rebounding team, but that will become a glaring weakness against Western. With Woolbright rebounding so well from his guard position, the Catamounts are the 37th-best defensive rebounding team in the entire country.
When you pair WCU’s rebounding advantage with Mercer’s struggles from the field (247th in shooting efficiency), it’s difficult to envision Mercer keeping things close.
The final piece of this puzzle is Mercer’s lone strength, forcing turnovers. Western rarely turns the ball over (55th), and even when the Bears turn teams over, they’re not cashing in with any regularity. Despite turning opponents over on 17.1% of possessions (65th), Mercer is 274th in fastbreak points this season (7.8 PPG).
Mercer will experience long scoring lulls in this game without easy transition buckets or put-backs at the rim. That’s a quality recipe for a road cover.
I would play this up to WCU -6.5.
Pick: Western Carolina -3 | Play to -6.5
Colgate vs. Bucknell
The Raiders are coming off a rare home loss in the Patriot League, and I think they come out of the gates firing in a classic bounce-back spot.
Colgate had an awful shooting performance against Lafayette, but the Raiders hung around because Matt Langel is still getting the most out of his team on the defensive end and the glass.
To be clear, this isn’t the Colgate team fans have gotten accustomed to seeing in the past five years. These Raiders aren't lethal from long range, don’t play fast and don’t bury teams with 10-0 runs.
Langel understands that to win with this group, he needs to slow things down, which he has (305th) while focusing on his half-court defense and rebounding (78th).
When drawing Bucknell, these points of emphasis should translate to a cover.
Bucknell likes to play slow, so there won’t be a contrast of styles. But the Bison can’t shoot worth a lick. They're shooting 42.5% from the field (241st) while gathering only 6.1 offensive rebounds per game (345th).
Head coach John Griffin III needs to hit the recruiting trail to find some shooters because outside of Jack Forrest (15.9 points per game, 39.1% from 3), no one can consistently make shots on this roster.
Colgate should be able to string together stops and eliminate second-chance opportunities in Lewisburg. For perspective, Bucknell has failed to top 63 points in eight of its last 13 games, so it’s not a stretch to expect more of the same from this flailing team.
On the matchup front, Keegan Records is coming off a double-double against Lafayette and should be in line for a big game against Bucknell’s Noah Williamson.
Records is among the best offensive rebounders in mid-majordum, averaging just shy of three per game. He grabbed six offensive boards against Lafayette and is due for a positive shooting regression. He’s down 13 points off his career shooting percentage from the field, and eventually, some of these shots near the basket will fall.
Bucknell once owned a robust home-court advantage at Sojka Pavilion, but the Bison are already 1-4 ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 6.3 points per game.
Unfortunately, Colgate has opened too high in the markets to consider a full-game wager. However, I'll happily bet on the Raiders in the first half, as we should see a lot of early energy combined with positive shooting regression in a good matchup.
Pick: Colgate 1H -6 or better
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