Colorado State vs Virginia Odds
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 120.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 120.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
How many boos did the Hoos get on Sunday? Will Tony Bennett's offensively-challenged Cavaliers suck the fun right out of the First Four?
A laughably low total — hovering a tick below 120 — sets the stage for what we all know is coming. Virginia's deliberate pace on both sides of the ball usually dictates the tempo.
Colorado State is no stranger to winning in the 60s, however. Many of the brawling battles in the Mountain West turn ugly, and the Rams have proven capable of winning these rock fights.
CSU has been especially effective keeping faster MWC teams out transition, but that skill won't be necessary against Virginia.
Colorado State Rams
Colorado State is at some fault for the Mountain West skepticism, specifically as it relates to road performance.
Interestingly, the Rams were outstanding at neutral sites this non-conference, knocking off Creighton, Washington and Boston College in November — and they just recently notched a victory over Nevada in the MWC tournament.
But CSU only won twice away from Fort Collins in conference play, knocking off two doormats in Fresno State and Air Force.
The key will be the Rams' role players, especially at the off-guard slots. UVA's packline will force drive-and-kick shots from the outside, which puts the onus on Josiah Strong, Jalen Lake, Joe Palmer and Nique Clifford to capitalize on their chances.
Isaiah Stevens will wiggle free occasionally, but expect him to be blanketed by Reece Beekman for most of the night.
Virginia Cavaliers
Even though Virginia's offense is a punchline, the defense can be demonic. Beekman is renowned glove at the point of attack, and Ryan Dunn is a physical specimen on the backend.
Expect Dunn to line up against Joel Scott, the Rams' Swiss Army knife forward.
UVA's lack of an imposing 5-man — save lesser used Blake Buchanan — has been mitigated by its scheme and positional effectiveness and won't be exploited by Colorado State's shorter frontline.
On offense, look for Isaac McKneely flying off pin downs and cross screens, as Bennett will be eager to get his token sharpshooter going early.
Taine Murray is another dark horse X-Factor after impressing in the ACC tournament for brief stints.
However, the persistent problem for UVA's offense has been secondary scoring, particularly from the perimeter. Colorado State's perimeter defense is highly underrated, too, buoyed by increased size and length (compared to last year).
Colorado State vs Virginia
Betting Pick & Prediction
This total feels too low to test, but the matchup slants on both ends will make buckets hard to come by.
Plus, UVA and Colorado State played even slower than normal in their respective tournaments, evidence that the pace could play even slower than KenPom's 60-possession projection.
UVA's last three games clocked an average offensive possession length of 21.0, 21.5 and 22.6 seconds per possession. For context, Air Force's 20.5 second average OPL is the slowest in college basketball year to date — thus, Virginia just played slower than the literal slowest for three straight games.
When efficiency and pace align, that's your clearance for take off.
