Fairleigh Dickinson vs Purdue Odds
| FDU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23 -110 | 145 -110o / -110u | +1800 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23 -110 | 145 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
After defeating Texas Southern in the First Four, Fairleigh Dickinson will be rewarded with a matchup against Purdue, the No. 1 overall seed in the East Region.
The Knights will have their work cut out for them against Wooden Award frontrunner Zach Edey. On Wednesday night, the Knights rolled out a starting five that did not include a player over 6-foot-6.
his starting five makes Fairleigh Dickinson the shortest team in college basketball in terms of average height.
Although the Knights used their defensive pressure to overcome this height disadvantage in their opening game, they face a completely different challenge in Edey's Boilermakers.
To determine if Fairleigh Dickinson has any hopes of overcoming their shortcomings, let's take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Purdue.
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights
Although the Knights earned a spot in the field of 64, there are many reasons to believe they will be greatly outmatched.
To start, the Knights played one of the easiest schedules in all of college basketball, ranking 362nd nationally according to KenPom's overall components.
As a result, the Knights' best win came back on Dec. 3 against a Saint Joseph's team that ranks 193rd nationally and did not make the NCAA Tournament.
Where the Knights have struggled the most is on the defensive end. Dickinson ranks 359th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, allowing 75.5 points per game.
In particular, Dickinson ranks outside the top 350 in midrange and near-proximity field goal percentage, allowing 45% and 67%, respectively. This will be exposed early and often by a Purdue offense that ranks inside the top 25 in both categories on the offensive end.
This production close to the basket will be almost unstoppable given the Knights' lack of size on the interior.
Purdue Boilermakers
Although Matt Painter's squad finished with a 29-5 record and a Big Ten Tournament title, it's still being picked heavily to get upset before reaching the Final Four in Houston.
Given the inexperience of freshman guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, I do believe there's some merit to this prediction. However, the Boilermakers will be looking to silence the critics in this opening-round matchup with Fairleigh Dickinson.
This statement will first be made on the offensive end through unmatched interior production from Edey, but the Boilers should also see a similar level of effectiveness on the defensive end.
Defensively, Purdue ranks 23rd nationally in Adjusted Efficiency by limiting teams on the glass and at the free-throw line. The Boilermakers allow their opponents to grab offensive rebounds on just 23.3% of their field goal attempts, the 14th-lowest rate in the country.
This presence on the offensive glass will be important against a Fairleigh Dickinson offense that wants to create second-chance opportunities. The Knights rank inside the top 100 in offensive rebounding percentage at 31.1%.
In addition to these limited second-chance opportunities, the Knights will also struggle to create anything from the free-throw line against a Purdue defense that's been elite at defending without fouling.
The Boilermakers rank first nationally in free-throw attempts allowed at just 19.3%. For a Knights offense already scoring just 17.4% of their total points from the line, this will be another area in which they're heavily limited.
Overall, look for Purdue to match its offensive production with a similar level of play on the defensive end.
Fairleigh Dickinson vs Purdue Betting Pick
Given all of the negativity surrounding this Purdue team, I expect Painter and the Boilermakers to look to make a statement in their opening round matchup against Fairleigh Dickinson.
Offensively, Edey will be able to dominate against an undersized Knights defense which has struggled against size and length all season. On the other end, Purdue will limit the Knights' second-chance opportunities, which it has used to catalyze its offense.
Given these advantages, I expect Purdue to jump out early. Making a first-half investment the best bet here between two teams that have a significant gap in talent.
Pick: Purdue 1H -12.5 (Play to -13.5) |
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