Not all of us were doubting Miami, but the Canes have somehow made the Final Four despite nearly losing to Drake in the opening round and owning a lacking defense.
Meanwhile, UConn has looked dominant, winning every game by double digits in this tournament.
Now the two programs go head-to-head in Houston for a chance to play in the National Championship on Monday.
Our staff has the top Final Four odds and picks, including three best bets for this matchup between UConn and Miami.
Final Four Best Bets: UConn vs. Miami
Use the team logos below to navigate to a best bet for Saturday's Final Four matchup between UConn and Miami.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
UConn vs. Miami
Saturday, April 1 8:49 p.m. ET CBS |
UConn -5  |
The storyline leading up to this weekend’s Final Four has been the improbable runs of Florida Atlantic, San Diego State and Miami, with Connecticut being the lone team some envisioned having the ability to cut down the nets in Houston.
This idea can be clearly seen in the Huskies sitting as a 5.5-point favorite over the Hurricanes and -125 to take home the title.
In order to make these predictions a reality, Dan Hurley’s squad must first take down Jim Larranaga’s Canes, who have surprised their opponents throughout the tournament.
Where Miami has been particularly surprising is on the defensive end. The Hurricanes rank 104th nationally in adjusted efficiency, allowing 75 points per game in their last three.
Although Miami has been able to overcome this inefficiency with stellar offensive play, I believe this trend will come to an end against an ultra-talented Connecticut offense.
Overall, Connecticut ranks third nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and second in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.
This offensive rebounding ability is spearheaded by center Adama Sanogo, who has posted an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.2%.
Although Miami will turn to Norchad Omier to continue his stellar play in the post to counteract Sanogo, depth may be the real issue here. The Hurricanes rank 326th nationally in bench minutes, getting just 24% of their total minutes off the bench.
On the other end, Connecticut has truly refined its rotation, especially on the offensive end. The emergence of Andre Jackson Jr. as a facilitator has truly opened things up for the Huskies, allowing them to average 85 points per game in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
Although the Huskies will likely be the public favorite by the time the game tips off on Saturday night, I believe this is justified, and I will gladly back them to make an appearance in the national title game.
Pick: UConn -5 (Play to -5.5) |
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UConn TT Over 77.5
Credit is due to Miami, which went from nearly getting upset in the opening round of the NCAA tournament to the Final Four. There’s been one driving factor behind it all — the offensive explosion from the Hurricanes.
But there are still obvious holes on the defensive end for the Hurricanes, who are looking to advance for a shot at the title despite owning an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ranking outside of the top 100.
This is a smaller-sized roster that struggles to defend inside. Its aggression and propensity to double team makes it susceptible to being picked apart by better passing teams.
Connecticut fits the bill across the board when it comes to creating mismatches on the offensive end. The Huskies rank inside the top 10 in A/FGM and are the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country. They’re 27th in average height.
We saw UConn manhandle Gonzaga due to its length. Drew Timme battled foul trouble, and the Huskies soared from there. Miami sets up similarly, relying heavily on Norchad Omier, especially around the rim.
I expect the Huskies to feed the post, letting Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan back down the smaller Omier around the rim.
If Miami decides to double in the post, Sanogo is a more-than-capable passer, and UConn’s perimeter shooting is potent. If not, Sanogo and Clingan will find a ton of success.
Jordan Hawkins’ illness does throw a wrench into this situation, but I’d expect the guard to play on Saturday. UConn has been playing at an elite level all tournament long on both ends of the floor, and that should continue against a weak Hurricanes defense.
In four NCAA tournament games, UConn has gone over 77.5 three times. Its “worst” game was a 70-55 win against Saint Mary’s in which the Huskies had 1.09 PPP. The other three: 1.32, 1.26 and 1.14.
So long as this game isn’t a blowout, UConn should clear the 80-point mark with ease. Rather than taking a side in this bout — Miami boasts one of the hottest offenses in college basketball — I’m banking on a higher-scoring game.
UConn’s defense makes me weary of the total as a whole, but I trust the Huskies' offense to roll. And if they struggle, second-chance opportunities should be plentiful.
Pick: UConn TT Over 77.5 (Play to 79.5)
Miami 1H +3
The real difference in this game should be on the interior. UConn’s pair of big men have given opponents trouble all season long, but Miami’s Norchad Omier is a capable challenger.
The 6-foot-7 Omier more than holds his own on the glass and has the size and power to give Huskies star Adama Sanogo difficulty around the block.
Danny Hurley boasts the ultimate trump card in 7-foot-2 freshman Donovan Clingan coming off the bench, and he has not been afraid to ride Clingan rather than Sanogo at times this year.
I’m not sure he’ll commit to that change on the biggest stage in the sport, especially prior to halftime.
I’ll roll the dice that Omier stays out of foul trouble over the first 20 minutes, with an eye on some live bets for the second half if he does.
UConn is the better team, which should prove out over 40 minutes. That’s why I’m banking on an early jab from a feisty Hurricanes side.
Pick: Miami 1H +3 |
