Florida State vs North Carolina Odds, Pick
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | +625 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
We head to the Dean Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, as the North Carolina Tar Heels will look to continue their winning ways when they host the Florida State Seminoles. These two teams have yet to face a conference foe, so this will be the first game of their ACC schedule.
The Seminoles struggled in their last game, as they recently lost to Georgia as nine-point favorites. HC Leonard Hamilton has a lot of work to do with this young group, but they have shown signs of promise so far this season. Both of these teams tend to pick up the tempo, so it's possible we get a back-and-forth affair.
Below, we have Florida State vs North Carolina odds and a pick for Saturday.
Florida State Seminoles
If you have yet to watch the Noles this season, it may come as a surprise when you see a bunch of giants walking around the court on Saturday afternoon. The Noles are the second-tallest team in the nation, according to KenPom, which explains why their starting backcourt is 6-foot-5 or taller.
It's very typical of Hamilton to compile a roster with lengthy, athletic dudes who play extremely tough. The Noles were expected to finish at the bottom of the ACC this season, but perhaps this group could start gelling a lot sooner than many expected.
For this matchup, I think the Noles will be able to find some cracks in this Heels defense. I love the way this offense moves the ball, as the majority of its field goals are assisted.
I do have some questions about the Noles' free throw shooting, as it's been a struggle to begin the year. This could be the difference in not only pulling off a big upset but covering the number.
The Heels don't foul very often, so the Noles will need to cash in on their opportunities. This is also a deep team, which can provide fresh legs to take advantage of UNC's thin rotation.
In terms of scoring, this is a pretty balanced group. They've been efficient inside and outside, so I don't think the Noles will go through many shooting woes in this fast-paced affair.
Senior guard Darin Green Jr. has been by far their best 3-point shooter in the backcourt. He'll be providing most of the firepower for the Noles from the outside.
Defensively, they certainly have the length to contain Heels star big man Armando Bacot, but the question remains if they're physical enough. I would expect Hamilton to double him inside and for the Noles to use their length to their advantage.
The Noles do a lot of great things on this side of the floor, but the issue is that North Carolina is not prone to any of these strengths. For instance, the Noles are excellent at forcing turnovers and defending the perimeter.
But, the Heels are excellent from the outside (40% 3PT) and do not turn the ball over at a high clip. There's no real edge for the Noles on this end of the floor.
The biggest reason I'm afraid to back the Noles is their foul rate. Perhaps this wouldn't be a big deal in other circumstances, but the Heels shoot 77% from the charity stripe, which is top-40 in the country.
The Noles always seem to put their opponents in the bonus early, which is a bad sign in this game. This could very well be why they could get blown out.
Use our FanDuel Promo Code to get the most out of your college basketball action.
North Carolina Tar Heels
There's no question that the Heels are one of the nation's most talented teams. They've proven this a couple of times early on this season, as they recently defeated a very good Tennessee team.
The Heels are fifth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, as well as 37th in Defensive Efficiency. It's early, but considering the opponents they've faced, I have no issue saying these numbers are legit.
Combined with their excellent free throw shooting and fast-paced offense, this is an offense that's going to continue to score plenty. Luckily for them, they're much more elite in the offensive categories that the Noles' defense specializes in.
Forward Harrison Ingram has been unconscious from 3-point range to begin the year, as he's hands down been the best shooter from the outside for the Heels. He's shooting a ridiculous 49% from beyond the arc.
I spoke about the Noles' defense above, but I think — despite the height deficit — the Heels should be able to continue their success from the outside. A lot of their scoring should come from transition, which should help them get additional open looks in that area of the court.
Their offensive game plan is going to revolve around the fact that the Noles are super aggressive on defense, which leads me to believe they'll be in the bonus early and often in each half. The Noles give up a ton of points from the free throw line, so if the Heels are also cooking from beyond the arc, it's going to be a long night for the Noles.
Overall, I don't see many areas the Noles' offense can exploit this Heels defense, as they're pretty sound in almost every category. This group is extremely well-balanced, and they rarely make any mistakes.
This is a thin team, but I don't think that will matter in this spot. I just trust the Heels' talent way more on both sides of the ball.
Use our BetMGM bonus code for bonus bets before making your Florida State vs. UNC picks.
Florida State vs. North Carolina
Betting Pick & Prediction
I don't like laying large numbers in conference games in college hoops, so I'm going to stick with that in this game.
But I really like the over.
KenPom makes this total around 159, and the line is currently sitting at 157. Many will think this is too high of a number due to their perception of the Noles, but I think there are plenty of paths to a high-scoring game.
With the Noles being so aggressive on defense, the Heels could find themselves at the free throw line for a good portion of this game. Points without time coming off the clock is always an over bettor's delight, and this is an area that is truly North Carolina's bread and butter.
Both of these teams love to go fast, so combine that with the foul factor, and we could see a ton of possessions in this game. With that said, I will happily take an over in this spot.
