After a 4-4 start to the new season, Mike Calabrese and Tanner McGrath are back for another edition of our Pick & Roll.
The dynamic duo has Friday college basketball predictions here, including one for Alabama vs. Ohio State on November 24.
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McGrath's 2 Friday Picks
You’ve probably heard a lot about the underperforming Gaels, who have lost three straight games, including one to lowly Weber State.
But let’s talk about why the Gaels are underperforming.
It’s 3-point shooting.
Nothing more, nothing less.
The Gaels are shooting 24.5% from deep, 345th nationally. In their losses to Weber State, San Diego State and Xavier, they shot 16-for-74 (21.6%), while their opponents made the same number of 3s on 26 fewer attempts (16-for-48, 33%).
That’s unsustainable, and I think it’s caused the Gaels to bottom out in the market. I expect shooting regression for this squad ASAP, and I suspect the Gaels are undervalued entering this home tilt with Davidson – for example, our Action PRO Model projects them as a 14-point home favorite, and ShotQualityBets projects them as a 15.5-point home favorite.
Also, this is a pure bounce-back opportunity for Saint Mary’s, which is coming off back-to-back neutral-court losses to two KenPom top-30 teams.
Being back home will help, and playing an inferior opponent will help. The last time Saint Mary’s faced a KenPom sub-50 team at home, it smoked New Mexico by 14.
Meanwhile, Davidson is coming off a comfy home win over Boston University on Tuesday and is traveling cross-country on three days of rest.
On the other hand, Saint Mary's enters this one with two extra days of rest and prep, as it hasn't played since Sunday.
From an on-the-court matchup perspective, Davidson could struggle to establish the McKillop perimeter-based offense against the best drop-coverage in the nation – the Gaels’ defensive scheme forces everything into the mid-range, as they’re 10th nationally in 3-point rate allowed.
But ultimately, I think this is an excellent bounce-back, buy-low spot on Saint Mary’s in a good situational spot.
Eventually, shots will start falling. If they start falling here, Saint Mary’s wins by 30.
Pick: Saint Mary's -7.5
This is ugly. This is a monster hold-your-nose spot.
Rice enters this game coming off four consecutive double-digit losses. The Owls have been blown out by every D-I team they’ve played this year. They’ve looked downright disgusting.
But those four losses came against Harvard, Texas, Indiana State and New Mexico. That’s a pretty brutal schedule.
Even worse, those four opponents shot a combined 40% from 3 against the Owls.
If Saint Mary’s is going to make more shots, Rice’s opponents will make fewer shots. That’s just how college basketball works.
Between the brutal schedule and tough luck, I think the Owls are uber-undervalued – for example, the ShotQualityBets model projects Rice as a neutral-court pick’em against UC Irvine.
Let’s go back to our preseason expectations for Rice.
The Owls returned four starters from last year’s 19-16 team. They returned their entire bench and brought in two Power Six transfers. They boast depth and length.
Overall, the Owls rank in the top-50 nationally in average D-I experience, top-90 in minutes continuity and top-60 in average height.
That’s the profile of a team expected to make a jump. And I think that jump is still happening, it’s just been delayed.
I love the Anteaters, who should be heavy favorites in the Big West this season. And they’ve already won some massive games, taking down USC and Toledo.
But they enter this game coming off five consecutive wins and they face a brutal upcoming schedule. After (hopefully) downing Rice, UC Irvine has back-to-back-to-back road games on deck against Duquesne, Utah State and San Diego State.
The Anteaters could come out sleepy and looking ahead here, and the Owls could take advantage.
Specifically, I expect Rice’s ball-screen-heavy offense to take advantage.
The Owls rank in the 91st percentile of D-I teams in pick-and-roll usage and in the 76th percentile in pick-and-roll PPP (.92).
Meanwhile, the Anteaters’ defense gets pick-and-rolled at the 13th-highest rate nationally, and they rank below the 40th percentile in PPP allowed in those sets (.79).
So, give me the super-undervalued Owls as double-digit ‘dogs against an Anteaters team in a sandwich spot.
If another Rice opponent makes 40% of their 3s, I’ll just have to tip my cap and move on.
Pick: Rice +10
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Calabrese's 2 Friday Picks
A few weeks ago, I laid out the reasons why I considered Florida a sleeper in the SEC. It starts with Todd Golden, who is one of the best up-and-coming head coaches in college basketball.
He was able to get San Francisco over the hump in the WCC, helping the Dons punch their first ticket to the Big Dance in 24 years. His final season in the Bay Area was a revelation, and I believe he has the personnel to pull off a similar breakthrough campaign in Gainesville thanks to his roster composition.
He went to the portal for his backcourt and landed Walter Clayton Jr. (Iona) and Zyon Pullin (UC Riverside). They’re far from household names, but both were stat-sheet stuffers at the mid-major level.
Pullin looked great on Wednesday, dishing out eight assists in a blowout of Pitt at the Barclays Center. Meanwhile, Clayton has the look of a go-to scorer, averaging 21.5 points per game across his last three.
What’s nice about this roster is that while the Gators' portal-infused backcourt is playing at a high level, they actually have the most balanced scoring in the SEC. Six players are averaging 10 or more points per game. This allows them to avoid lulls and off-nights from their superstars.
Beating a Baylor team that's cooking right now will require everyone to elevate their game, but I think that Florida is peaking at the right time.
Unlike the Gators, the Bears are overly reliant on one player. True freshman Ja'Kobe Walter has the look of a lottery pick. At 6-foot-5, the bouncy wing is already flirting with the famed 90/50/40 shooting threshold. In just 30 minutes of work, he buried Oregon State on Wednesday, finishing with a line of 24/5/3 on 4-of-8 shooting from deep.
When he’s knocking down shots from long range, he’s virtually unguardable.
Luckily, Florida has the offense to keep pace if this turns into a shootout. The Gators sport the fourth-rated offense, according to ShotQuality. Even if Marshall transfer Micah Handlogten is out with an ankle injury, I like the lineup of Clayton/Riley Kugel/Pullin/Tyrese Samuel/Thomas Haugh to give Baylor problems on both ends of the floor.
As long as I’m getting plus-money here, I think this is a sell-high spot on Baylor, which is one off-shooting night from Walter from being mortal.
Pick: Florida +3.5
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In a recent buy or sell segment on Green Dot Daily with Maria Marino and Anthony Dabbundo, I was an enthusiastic buyer of the Crimson Tide.
I believe this team, and not the one led by superstar Brandon Miller last season, is best positioned for a run to the Final Four. Thanks to Nate Oats’ shrewd work in the transfer portal, three of his starters honed their craft at the mid-major level.
Point guard Mark Sears, a former Ohio transfer who is an Alabama native, has gotten better and better running the point. He’s already playing at a near 20/5/5 level, while shooting the lights out. He’s currently the highest-rated power-conference point guard in terms of his raw “NBA Efficiency.”
Then there are the two transfer portal gets from this last cycle that are paying immediate dividends.
Aaron Estrada, a Hofstra legend, hit the portal in the offseason and garnered immediate attention from top-25 schools as a four-star prospect. He’s a perfect fit in Oats’ system because of his versatility. He can rebound as a 6-foot-3 wing, facilitate for his teammates (4.6 APG at Hofstra) and he’s an excellent spot-up shooter from deep.
Oats can mix and match his lineups with a player like Estrada.
What Alabama needed to cap a great portal class was some interior toughness, and it got just that in Grant Nelson. The North Dakota State transfer was a plus-defender who averaged 19 and nine in the Summit last season. He wasted little time showing what he could bring to the table, compiling a 24-point, seven-rebound, three-stock performance in his first game.
His defensive acumen at 6-foot-11, 230 pounds has allowed complementary bigs Nick Pringle and freshman Jarin Stevenson to successfully contribute right away.
Beyond personnel, it’s more of the same from Oats' system. The Crimson Tide are second nationally in Rim & 3 Rate, according to ShotQuality, and they already hold the top offensive spot in terms of shooting efficiency and 3-point accuracy.
They have the firepower to blow teams out this year, and that’s what I think is on tap down in Destin against the Buckeyes.
Ohio State has been underwhelming in a 3-1 start, falling to Texas A&M by seven at home as a short favorite and failing to dominate a trio of mid-major also-rans (Oakland, Merrimack, Western Michigan).
The Buckeyes' defense looked fine against the mid-majors, but against an offensive juggernaut like Alabama, they would need to be comfortable playing and winning in the 80s.
I think Ohio State will find itself in deep water once the Crimson Tide up the tempo and challenge the Buckeyes to keep pace.
Pick: Alabama -7.5
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