Georgia Southern vs Tennessee Odds
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+33.5 -105 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-33.5 -115 | 144.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
The Tennessee Volunteers picked up their second top-15 KenPom win on Saturday. Now, they're set up for an easier matchup on Tuesday against the Georgia Southern Eagles, who are yet to win a game this season and rank 330th, per KenPom.
Georgia Southern has a particularly poor defense, but plays at a moderately quick pace. That said, the Eagles slow the game down on defense, and given how wide of a scoring discrepancy there will be between these teams, the under should be in play.
Here's Georgia Southern vs. Tennessee odds and a pick for Tuesday.
Georgia Southern Eagles
The Eagles do one thing well — shoots 3s. And they do it often. Even though they are shooting 3s at the 11th-highest rate in the country, they are hitting 34% from beyond the arc as a team. Defensively, Tennessee is pretty solid guarding the arc. The Volunteers rank 51st in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality, while Georgia Southern ranks 342nd. The Eagles aren't taking good shots from deep, despite having five players shooting over 35% from outside. Tennessee will allow 3s (261st in allowed 3-point percentage), but they will not be good shots.
One area of concern for an under is usually second-chance points. The Eagles rank 220th in offensive rebounding rate and 351st defensively, so if anything, this is a problem on the Tennessee side of the court. However, Tennessee ranks 194th in offensive rebounding and 68th defensively. Most of the time, the Volunteers will limit the Eagles to one shot per possession, but second chances won't occur as often as some might expect in this type of matchup.
Georgia Southern ranks 343rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and is 231st at 17.5 seconds per possession on defense. The Eagles also use up 16.6 seconds per possession on offense.
Tennessee Volunteers
On the other side of the court, the Volunteers play at a similar tempo. They rank 83rd in Adjusted Tempo and average 15.4 seconds per possession on offense, but they also average 18.2 seconds per possession on defense and rank 309th. Simply put, expect the Volunteers to dictate the offensive pace for the Eagles.
Now, Tennessee has a top-five defense for a reason. It limits teams to 45.2% on field goals inside the perimeter and ranks 17th in points per possession at the rim on defense. Luckily (for under-backers), Georgia Southern is one of the weakest teams in the country in this statistic, ranking 356th.
Much of Tennessee’s offense comes from either the free-throw line or from beyond the arc. The Volunteers ranks 153rd in free-throw attempt rate offensively and 305th defensively. Georgia Southern ranks 299th and 321st, respectively, so this may be one hindrance to the under.
The Volunteers are shooting 3s 40.2% of the time, while making 33.2%. They rank 144th in Open 3 Rate offensively, so they have the same issue as the Eagles. The Volunteers aren't getting open before hoisting a 3. Georgia Southern ranks 197th in Open 3 Rate on defense. Yes, Tennessee will get its fair share of open looks from outside, but sometimes, the Eagles should be there to contest the shot.
Lastly, Tennessee may be talented, but it ranks 281st in Rim and 3 Rate, per Shot Quality. This has been an ongoing issue. The Volunteers aren't taking the right shots. With that being said, they will score often in this game, it just may not match the expected team total.
Georgia Southern vs. Tennessee
Betting Pick & Prediction
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For the under-backers, Georgia State's defensive pace and ability to prevent open looks from 3 should help keep this game under the total. Sure, Tennessee will have plenty of scoring chances and will route the Eagles, but this can be played to Under 145 (-110).
