Gonzaga vs San Francisco Pick & Prediction
| Gonzaga Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 153.5 -115o / -105u | -185 |
| San Francisco Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 153.5 -115o / -105u | +150 |
Gonzaga faces San Francisco on Thursday, February 29 at 11 p.m. ET on ESPN2. Here's a Gonzaga vs San Francisco pick and prediction for Thursday.
As far as late-night mid-major games, the duel between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and San Francisco Dons has as much riding on the line as any game this season.
Gonzaga's tournament fate is teetering on the bubble, while San Francisco seeks to add a statement win to a solid season that could spark some forward momentum.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
The stretch of basketball success seen at Gonzaga over the last decade cannot be overstated.
Mark Few built a small mid-major program into one of the nation's blue bloods. The Zags have made the last eight Sweet 16s (and would have been a 1-seed in 2020 as well if the tournament wasn't canceled).
Gonzaga has not missed the NCAA tournament this century, a feat only matched by Kansas and Michigan State — not stalwarts like Duke, North Carolina, Villanova, Arizona,and so many more.
Yet, the Bulldogs currently sit on the NCAA tournament bubble. That's largely due to Gonzaga's inability to beat a top-75 KenPom team in the early nonconference schedule, failing in four tries.
The Zags boosted themselves into most projected brackets with a late-season victory at Rupp Arena over John Calipari's Kentucky team. This marked a signature win for a team that has so few chances to win big games down the stretch in West Coast Conference play.
Predictive ratings are far more bullish on the Zags, with KenPom, Bart Torvik, and EvanMiya each ranking Gonzaga as one of the 21 best teams in college hoops. However, that only carries so much favor with a tournament selection committee more concerned with the resume you've created in the past than your chances to win games in the future.
Gonzaga's final two games do offer real chances to add to that resume, as it travels to play San Francisco and Saint Mary's.
Those wins won't come easy. For the first time in a while, this Gonzaga team feels like less than the sum of its parts.
Few's six best players are basically two point guards in Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman and four power forwards in Anton Watson, Ben Gregg, Graham Ike and Braden Huff.
On the offensive end, this has not been an issue. Those players, though oddly configured, are versatile and give Few tools to play with in the half-court or as part of a high-paced transition attack.
Issues have crept in when shooting has gone cold, leaving the Zags one-dimensional. It's no surprise that Gonzaga's six losses this season came in the Zags' six worst offensive performances by points per possession, with a 3-point percentage of just 20% across those games.
Gonzaga is not a team that shoots a lot of 3s, ranking 309th in the nation in percentage of points coming from the deep ball, but the Zags rely on shooting for the spacing to operate offensively.
San Francisco Dons
San Francisco is a strong team that simply can't escape expectations.
In the Dons' six games in which they were the worse team, according to KenPom, San Francisco is 0-6. When the Dons are the better team, they're 21-1.
Gambling data matches that, with San Francisco going 21-1 as a favorite and winless in six games as an underdog.
That's a tad surprising for a team built to play aggressively. The Dons led the WCC in forcing turnovers defensively, committing a ton of fouls while doing so. It's a risk that drives defense into offensive chances.
The Dons don't play fast but excel in transition, shooting the eighth-best effective field goal rate on transition chances in Division I. Those high-value chances fuel San Francisco's success around the rim, where the Dons convert easy buckets at the second-highest clip in the country.
That stat is fueled by the success of Jonathan Mogbo, who patrols the paint for USF. He's shooting nearly 80% around the rim, where he does the large majority of his work.
His energy on the glass is also a cornerstone of San Francisco's game plans on both ends of the floor. Mogbo's ability to pair with point guard and offensive creator Marcus Williams sets up the Dons for many of their scoring opportunities.
Gonzaga vs San Francisco
Betting Pick & Prediction
These teams met once already, with Gonzaga winning by five in Spokane.
That score is a tad misleading given that the Zags rode a 17-4 run in the second half to stretch their lead to as many as 13 in the final three minutes before a late flurry from the Dons.
In that meeting, Gonzaga took 34 free throws to just 14 for San Francisco. That may have included some home-cooking in the Kennel but is also par for the course for the Dons. They allow the highest free-throw rate in the WCC while earning the second-fewest freebies on the offensive end.
Those extra attempts would be crucial here in a rematch, especially for a San Francisco team that's shooting 47% from 3-point range in its last three games and expecting some offensive regression.
This is a huge game for both programs. Gonzaga rests on the bubble. San Francisco chose to host this game at the Chase Center, the Warriors' new building that dwarfs the Dons' home gym.
I wonder if that will spark the hometown fans to cheer on the Dons or if it waters down the home-court advantage, even opening the doors for plenty of Zag fans to attend.
With the chips down, the gut says to trust Few. Since 2005, when the Zags have played a road or conference game with a spread between +3 and -3, Gonzaga is 13-6 against the spread.
