Before a monster Saturday slate that features Purdue vs. Arizona and Kentucky vs. North Carolina, No. 10 Gonzaga takes on No. 5 UConn at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA.
Dive in below for Gonzaga vs. UConn predictions, including our staff's spread picks for Friday, December 15.
Gonzaga vs. UConn Predictions
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Gonzaga vs. UConn
UConn -4.5
In what is labeled as a neutral-site matchup, UConn will fly cross-country to Seattle to take on Mark Few's Gonzaga Bulldogs.
UConn may not be quite as strong as last year's Huskies, who managed to defeat every non-conference opponent by double digits. Still, the Huskies are very much in the national title conversation again, in large part because of the play of Tristen Newton.
The spot and travel advantage begs smart bettors to side with Gonzaga. The Zags are desperate to clinch a statement win, especially with only San Diego State and Kentucky looming as consequential future opportunities to boost their NCAA resume.
I'm simply shaken by the second-half collapse Gonzaga put on tape at Washington this past Saturday. The Bulldogs managed only seven points in the final 10 minutes against a different Huskies team, while also struggling to get stops against a Washington offense that's significantly less potent than UConn's offensive unit.
At this stage in the season, I have much more confidence in the cohesiveness of UConn. I will trust its ability to overcome Gonzaga's travel advantage and determined effort to tally another win in the left column.
Pick: UConn -4.5 (Play to -5)
Gonzaga +5.5
By D.J. James
Gonzaga vs. UConn is clearly the biggest game on Friday. Both have comparable defenses. The Bulldogs rank 17th in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 18th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Huskies rank fourth and 16th, respectively.
UConn’s defense may be a little overrated, however. The Huskies rank 114th in points per possession at the rim on defense (ShotQuality), while the Zags rank 42nd. Gonzaga ranks 14th in this metric offensively and has a 3-point attempt rate of 33.2% (284th in the country).
This means that, more often than not, the Zags are getting the ball inside and are pretty efficient in doing so.
UConn has a tendency to launch 3s. The Huskies rank 56th in 3-point attempt rate, while shooting a touch under 34% from deep. Gonzaga ranks 156th in 3-point attempt rate on defense, but the Bulldogs are holding the opposition to 29.1% from deep and 43.8% from inside the arc. They've done a solid job guarding inside and out.
Now, UConn probably holds the edge in rebounding, ranking seventh offensively and 14th defensively. Meanwhile, the Zags aren't lagging too far behind, ranking 14th and 77th, respectively.
UConn is allowing opponents to make 3s 37.4% of the time, but it ranks 51st in Open 3 Rate (ShotQuality) on defense. Gonzaga ranks 262nd in defensive Open 3 Rate, so this could be one area of concern for Zags-backers.
Either way, these two teams are close in many statistics, and this game is being played in Seattle, so expect the Bulldog faithful to show up.
Take the Zags from +5.5 to +4.
Pick: Gonzaga +5.5 (Play to +4)
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Gonzaga +5.5
By John Feltman
This should be an excellent matchup in Seattle, as the Bulldog faithful should show up with an electrified crowd. This isn’t an official “away” game for the Huskies, but it may as well be, considering they’re traveling across the country to play in the Zags' home state of Washington.
Everyone by now probably knows how high I am on this UConn team, but this spread is a tad bit high to me. KenPom projects this game UConn -2, so we're indeed getting a bit of assumed value with the Bulldogs.
How do you beat this UConn team? You exploit its weak perimeter defense and cash in from deep.
The Bulldogs aren’t the greatest 3-point shooting team, but it’s alarming that the Huskies are 325th in opposing 3PT%. I would expect Few to get this offense moving with a bunch of screens in order to generate as many open looks from deep as possible.
The Zags really struggled inside when they faced Zach Edey and Purdue in the Maui Invitational, and they’re probably going to run into similar trouble in this matchup against Donovan Clingan. The Huskies are sixth in opposing 2PT% and 16th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
However, this is a Gonzaga team that's 17th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and has done an excellent job at generating second chances on offense by crashing the glass. It won’t be easy, but I think Graham Ike and Braden Huff are up for the task, as they’ve proven to be efficient inside.
I’m not quite sure that the Bulldogs have enough firepower to win this game outright, but this spread is definitely too large to back the Huskies given the spot. The home-court feel should add some motivation for the Zags, and I expect them to keep this a close contest.
Pick: Gonzaga +5.5 (Play to +4)
