Iowa vs Wisconsin Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
Let's head out to Madison, Wisconsin, where the Kohl Center will be rocking as the Wisconsin Badgers take on the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes enter Tuesday's matchup on a three-game winning streak, so they will look to translate that positive momentum into an upset victory.
The Badgers are off to a solid 9-3 start to begin the year. It's also nice to see their offense carry the load instead of heavily leaning on their defense.
Iowa Hawkeyes
In the opening, I referenced the Hawkeyes' three-game winning streak. However, I glossed over Iowa's competition during that streak: Its victories have come against Florida A&M, UMBC and Northern Illinois.
According to KenPom, the highest-ranked team out of that bunch is 229th. I hate to rain on the parade of Hawkeyes fans; you had to watch Deacon Hill play quarterback for your football team during the last three months.
The recent success of the Hawkeyes offense is something that should not be taken lightly, and now they will enter a tough environment against a good defensive team. The Badgers are 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency and rank second in defensive quality.
If Iowa wants to have any prayer in this game, its offense must be much more efficient. Yes, Iowa has scored more than 100 points in back-to-back contests — but those performances have come against awful opponents.
The Hawkeyes rank 321st in Rim-and-3 Rate, which informs us that Iowa's shot selection has been poor. This isn't your typical Iowa team of the past: It ranks 313th in 3-point attempts.
Nevertheless, Iowa remains a speed racer on offense, entering Tuesday's game ranked 14th in adjusted tempo. However, we all know the Badgers like to slow the game down and make you earn your points on the offensive end.
The Badgers haven't been elite at defending inside and outside of the arc, but they're an excellent defensive rebounding team. Do not expect many second-chance scoring opportunities for the Hawkeyes.
Frontcourt mates Owen Freeman and Ben Krikke have been a focal point on the inside, but this isn't a great matchup. They will have their hands full with Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl from the Badgers.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin has proven that it belongs at the top of the Big Ten standings, due in part to its offensive success. Last year, this group was not nearly as consistent on the offensive side of the floor, which ultimately led to Wisconsin's downfall.
Now, the Badgers rank 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They've been excellent at protecting the basketball, and they shoot 77% from the charity stripe.
The Badgers' offensive rebounding is another big reason for their success, and that tactical edge should continue against Iowa. Most of their scoring damage has come from inside the arc. So, if they are able to heat up consistently from the outside, this team could be very dangerous.
The Hawkeyes' defensive numbers are inflated due to their recent competition, so this is a spot I expect the Badgers to dominate. Guard Chucky Hepburn is probable to play in this game due to a groin injury, which should help Wisconsin generate some more scoring chances from the outside.
This remains a snail-paced offense, so I'm not quite sure it's viable to lay this amount of points with Wisconsin, since Iowa won't quit firing late in the game. Ultimately, this comes down to a matchup where I have way more faith in the Badgers frontcourt. Their rebounding ability should control this game from the opening tip.
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm going to trust the Badgers defense and take Under 153.5. Despite the Badgers' mediocre numbers defending inside and outside of the arc, they should dominate the glass and control the tempo.
Moreover, we may get an inflated number due to the recent scoring outburst of the Hawkeyes. But again, that came against teams that wouldn't sniff any of the talent in the Big Ten. Fran McCaffery's team tends to persevere late in games, but I have a feeling they will be far too overmatched.
Instead of laying the points with the Badgers, targeting the under is the best way to attack this game. In a game where I anticipate a slower pace, I'd rather go this route rather than be backdoored late by the Hawkeyes.
