Kentucky vs Florida Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 168.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 168.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Below, we have Kentucky vs Florida odds and a pick for Saturday.
On Saturday afternoon, one of the best rivalries in the SEC will be renewed when the No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats head to Gainesville to battle the Florida Gators. It'll be the SEC opener for both teams; Kentucky will come in at 10-2 while Florida is 10-3.
This series has been one-sided of late, as Kentucky has won nine of the last 10 meetings. The Wildcats are short favorites on the road once again.
The first matchup this season between the two may see a ton of points, as it'll feature two of the three highest scoring teams in the SEC.
The last two meetings have gone over as well. Will that trend continue with an early afternoon tip?
Kentucky Wildcats
Since Kentucky inserted five-star freshman center Aaron Bradshaw into its lineup, it's 4-1 and has won its last four games.
Though he's averaging just seven points, four rebounds and a block per game this season, Bradshaw adds much needed size and rim protection to the Wildcats' lineup. It also allows forward Tre Mitchell to slide over to his more natural four spot and gives the Wildcats two bigs who can stretch the floor.
Surrounding them is a bevy of dynamic scoring guards. The veteran of the group is fifth-year senior Antonio Reeves. He's the second-leading scorer in the SEC at 19 points per game, and he has six 20-point games already this season, including 27 last time out against Illinois State.
Freshman guards Robert Dillingham, Reed Sheppard and D.J. Wagner are all averaging in double digits as well. Dillingham is also fourth in the SEC with 4.5 assists per game, while Sheppard leads the conference with 2.8 steals and is second in 3-point percentage at 56.8%.
Sheppard is the best shooter on a Kentucky team that hits 41.6% of its shots from beyond the arc.
Despite its youth, Kentucky is also fourth nationally in turnover percentage. As a result, it ranks eighth nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency.
The Wildcats are far more inconsistent on the defensive end. They're 49th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and are allowing 84.5 points per game in their two losses. They're also allowing 80.2 points per game against high-major opponents this year.
One area where Kentucky does stand out defensively is blocking shots. It ranks 10th nationally in block rate and 14th with 5.8 blocks per game.
Florida Gators
Florida will challenge Kentucky's improved frontcourt depth with an imposing frontline of its own.
Leading the way is forward Tyrese Samuel, who's averaging 14.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. He leads the SEC in field goal percentage (64.6%) and is third in the conference in rebounds per game.
The Gators surround him with four guards who are averaging in double figures, led by Walter Clayton Jr.'s 15.2 points per game. Zyon Pullin is averaging 14.1 points per game and leads the SEC with five assists per game. He's also the team's best shooter at 43% from 3.
Sophomore Riley Kugel has been in a slump over the past five games, but he may be excited to see Kentucky. He scored 24 points against the Wildcats in their last meeting in Gainesville, so it wouldn't be a surprise if he snapped out of his funk with another big outing against them.
Florida is 31st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. It's very efficient around the rim and makes 54% of its 2s.
Florida also limits opponents to making 44% of their 2s, however, the Gators can be attacked from behind the arc. Florida is allowing opponents to shoot 34.1% from 3 and is 219th in 3-point percentage defense.
Against Kentucky, that could prove problematic, as the Wildcats have a plethora of 3-point shooters at their disposal.
Additionally, Florida's defense is 269th in turnover percentage. That's another area that should favor Kentucky's offense.
Kentucky vs. Florida
Betting Pick & Prediction
This total is high, but that's for good reason. Combined, the teams average 177.4 points per game. They also both rank in the top 25 in Adjusted Tempo and the top 20 in shortest average possession length offensively.
That means this game should have a lot of possessions with points coming in a flurry.
Should the teams — particularly Florida — get off to a slow start from the field, offensive rebounding could be a factor. The Gators rank near the top nationally in both offensive rebounds per game (16.2) and offensive rebounding percentage.
Both teams haven't had much trouble clearing the total this season. The over is 9-3 in Kentucky's games, hitting in nine of its past 10 games. Florida's games are 9-3-1 to the over as well. Both teams have had lines in the 160s and higher.
Here, we're going to the edge of the 160s with a total of 169.5 points. However, KenPom projects 171 points in this matchup, so we're getting a point and half of value.
I'll be backing the over here in what should be a fun matchup between these rivals.
Pick: Over 169.5
ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.
