The Duke Blue Devils host the Maine Black Bears on opening night at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC. Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Duke is favored by 29 points on the spread with a total sitting at 134.5 points.
Here’s my Maine vs Duke predictions and my college basketball picks for opening night.
Maine vs Duke Prediction
My pick: Over 134.5
My Maine vs Duke best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Maine vs Duke Odds, Lines, Pick
| Maine Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+31.5 -110 | 136.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-31.5 -110 | 136.5 -110o / -110u | OFF |
- Maine vs Duke spread: Duke -31.5
- Maine vs Duke over/under: 136.5 points
- Maine vs Duke best bet: Over 134.5
Spread
I'm passing on the spread.
Moneyline
I'm passing on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I think the total is a tad low, so I'll be on the over.
My pick: Over 134.5
Maine vs Duke Betting Trends to Know
- 98% of bets and 72% of the money is on the Duke to cover the spread.
- 98% of bets and 97% of the money is on the over.
Maine vs Duke Start Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Monday, November 4 |
| Start Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Maine vs Duke is scheduled for a 7 p.m. ET start time, live from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC, on Monday. The game is live on ACC Network.
Maine vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
Despite his home-state connections, I doubt Flagg shows any mercy on Monday. He’s among the most hyped prospects of the past two decades. He’s one of those “unicorns” who are becoming more commonplace.
Standing 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot wingspan, he plays like an elite shot-blocking center on defense and an off-the-bounce playmaker/shot-creator on offense.
I could wax poetic about Cooper’s two-way skills six ways to Sunday, but I’m more interested in exploring how Jon Scheyer might use Flagg in Duke’s offense.
Last year, the Blue Devils offense worked through Kyle Filipowski in ball screens – Filipowski was a deft finisher on the hard roll and a quick, decisive passer out of the short roll. Scheyer surrounded him with shooters and played a four-out ball-screen motion offense, and his team shot 39% from deep during ACC play.
But Flagg – alongside returning point guard Tyrese Proctor – opens up a wider range of possibilities.
The Proctor-Flagg pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop could be unstoppable, especially because either can be the initiator. Using Flagg as a top-of-the-key DHO triggerman could be deadly.
Flagg is a brilliant passer who could be a hub for the offense, hitting sharpshooting freshman Kon Knueppel for spot-up opportunities, Tulane transfer Sion James on rim-running cuts or 7-foot-2 freak athlete freshman big man Khaman Maluach on lobs.
Or Flagg can just put it on the deck and shoot over his opponent. Suffice it to say I'll be watching the offense's development very closely.
Regardless, the defense should be overwhelming. Duke’s top-to-bottom versatility is astonishing — the Devils can switch everything and dominate. Proctor is an excellent point-of-attack ball-screen defender, Flagg is a do-everything interior anchor and Syracuse transfer Maliq Brown could be the best Junkyard Dog defender in the country.
There’s arguably more length than I’ve ever seen on a college basketball roster – not a single player stands under 6-foot-5.
And that brings me to Maine.
The Black Bears run a ball-screen motion offense, and the Kellen Tynes-Jaden Clayton backcourt team keeps improving at initiating the pick-and-roll.
But shooting is an issue. Last season, the Bears couldn’t hit water if it fell out of a boat, allowing defenses to sag toward the interior and mucking up any interior action. They fell to 319th nationally and second-to-last in the AmEast in offensive efficiency after shooting under 30% from deep.
That said, I have higher hopes for the Maine offense in 2024-25. AJ Lopez was shooting well in the non-conference before a shoulder injury derailed his season, and he could bounce back if fully healthy.
Meanwhile, after an up-and-down three months, Quion Burns re-found his stroke down the stretch, scoring 11.4 points per game over his final five contests by draining 41% of his triples.
The X-Factor, however, is App State transfer Christopher Mantis. He’s shot 34% from deep over the past two conference seasons and managed 1.03 spot-up PPP last year (71st percentile). He also has unlimited range.
If everything shakes out right, Maine could have three legit 35% 3-point shooters on the wing, which would open up Chris Markwood’s ball-screen motion — even if the Bears still need to find a suitable roll-man replacement for Peter Filipovity.
It’s illogical to think the Bears will somehow produce efficient offense against Duke. The Blue Devils should stop any Black Bear ball-screen actions at the outset, and the Devils' lengthy perimeter corps should contest any shots from Maine’s up-and-coming spot-up shooters.
That said, I believe Maine’s offense is undervalued.
While Maine prides itself on the defensive end, I don’t entirely love this matchup.
The Bears run an aggressive, perimeter-oriented defense that leverages the quick hands of Tynes and Clayton to force turnovers at a near-20% rate (tops in the AmEast, top-50 nationally).
However, Proctor and James are two of college basketball’s steadiest ball-handlers, combining for over six assists per game with a turnover rate of around 10% (well above average) last season.
Everything can fall apart if the Bears aren’t forcing turnovers. Their aggressive style leaves the interior vulnerable, where Flagg, Brown, Maluach and Duke’s other off-ball cutting wings can go thermonuclear.
I have high hopes for 6-foot-10 New Hampshire transfer Ridvan Tutic – he’s the type of lengthy, mobile interior anchor who can defend opposing big men on an island and allow the Black Bear guards to run wild on the perimeter.
But it would take a truly superhuman effort to wall off Duke’s array of interior scoring options.
Ultimately, I project the Black Bears' offense as undervalued and their defense as overvalued (at least in this matchup). And I wouldn’t be surprised if the market isn’t baking in Duke’s offensive ceiling enough.
So, I think the total is too low.
KenPom projects the over/under at 138, Bart Torvik projects it at 141 and EvanMiya projects it at 142. We’re getting nearly seven points of projection-based value against the 134.5-point number available at FanDuel.
The projected pace does scare me, given both squads averaged around 66 possessions per game last season (271st nationally).
However, KenPom projects a slight increase in adjusted tempo for both teams this year — closer to 70 possessions. Also, Duke’s more versatile roster could allow Scheyer to emphasize more open-court action, given Filipowksi was often a lumbering, dribble-heavy ball-stopper on the low block.
