Marquette vs Creighton Odds
| Marquette Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Creighton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 152.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
Editor's Note: Tyler Kolek (oblique) and Oso Ighodaro (illness) are both out today.
Two months ago, this Saturday battle between the Marquette Golden Eagles and Creighton Bluejays looked like one of the best games of the Big East's season.
Now that we've reached this date, the game unfortunately has lost some of its luster. It likely won't have any bearing on the conference standings or Big East tournament seeding, with Marquette two games behind UConn for first place and two games clear of Creighton for second place.
It could have some bearing on NCAA tournament seeds, though both teams look fairly safely slotted into their spots by this point in the season. Marquette, for example, is named a two seed by 105 of Bracket Matrix's 109 bracketologists.
There's no reason, however, to believe the actual quality of play will suffer. These are two of the best teams in one of the country's best basketball conferences, with bragging rights and pride providing plenty of reason for both sides to throw their toughest punches.
Marquette Golden Eagles
Marquette entered the season as favorites to win the Big East, but a wayward stretch from late November to early January in which the Golden Eagles went just 6-5 dashed those hopes.
Marquette rebounded and returned to the form that led many to believe the Golden Eagles had a chance to reach the Final Four this season. Since January 11, Marquette is 11-1, playing like the seventh-best team in the nation by Bart Torvik's T-Rank metric.
A large dose of credit is owed to Tyler Kolek, who's playing like a first team All-American candidate. In those 12 games, Kolek has averaged 16.5 points, 9.3 assists and 4.2 rebounds while shooting over 44% from downtown.
In half of the games in that span, he's totaled more than 10 assists. At times, he's willed or nearly carried this team to its victories, like his 32-point, nine-assist, six-rebound game at Villanova or his 27-point, 13-assist, seven-rebound day against St. John's.
His work as a playmaker off a pick or leading the Golden Eagles in transition has propelled Marquette to a top-10 offense in the nation.
As the season has developed, however, it's been the Marquette defense that's truly separated the Golden Eagles from the middle of the pack in the Big East. They lead the conference in defensive efficiency, a notch ahead of UConn, thanks to turnover and steal rates that dwarf the rest of the conference.
This is not the havoc defense we saw from Smart's at VCU or even Texas. This defense is more well-rounded and balanced, with the athletes to truly push opponents into difficult situations.
Creighton Bluejays
Forgive me if I'm repeating the gist of my many Creighton previews this season, yet compared to other teams, the Bluejays make it easy to re-hash the same points because Greg McDermott's team is so dedicated to its principles.
Defensively, veteran center Ryan Kalkbrenner is going to play drop coverage into the paint against pick-and-rolls, with his teammates closing out hard to funnel drivers into his waiting arms. The resulting defensive game plan leads to the lowest forced turnover rate in college basketball, plus the lowest free-throw rate allowed.
Every Bluejay but Kalkbrenner knows they don't need to try for steals or reach in for fouls. The plan is to send everything inside the arc to either challenge an elite shot-blocker or settle for a mid-range jump shot. Creighton's opponents take more mid-range 2s than anyone else.
On the other end, McDermott and his team are looking to prove the simple math theory that three is greater than two. The Bluejays hoist 3-pointers at a top-10 rate in the country and the highest such rate in the Big East.
With a cadre of capable shooters, Creighton is willing to wager that, over a large enough sample size, it can generate more points on its many 3s than you can find while taking your mid-range 2s.
Marquette vs Creighton
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's four reasons I like Marquette in this spot.
First, the Golden Eagles are playing up to their potential after a spotty start to Big East play earlier in the year. Marquette's only loss since January 10 (12 games) was a defeat in the Golden Eagles' toughest game of the season, a trip to UConn.
Second, I like this matchup specifically for Marquette, especially when the Golden Eagles have the ball. Creighton's drop coverage — with Kalkbrenner anchoring things in the paint defensively — provides opportunities for opponents to score or make plays from the mid-range area of the defense.
Marquette doesn't take a lot of 2-point shots — like the St. John's team that just rode its mid-range game to a win over Creighton — though the Golden Eagles are very efficient when they do, making 2-point jumpers at a top-15 percentage in the country.
A lot of that comes via Oso Ighodaro, making plays off a short roll action after acting as a screener. Ighodaro is crafty when he gets the ball near the nail, with an eye for open teammates or his patented push-shot floater.
In two wins over Kalkbrenner and Creighton last season, Ighodaro averaged 17 points on 65% shooting. In the first meeting this year, he got those open looks again, but couldn't finish, making just 2-of-10 inside the arc (Marquette still won, its third straight win over Creighton).
I'd be shocked if Ighodaro laid another egg like that again.
Even if the big man goes cold, the third reason to like Marquette's chances comes in the form of 3-point shooting luck. Creighton's last four opponents have combined to hit just 23.6% of their outside attempts. Marquette has been hot but will have a chance to stay that way in Omaha.
Lastly, Smart has been a reliable bet as an underdog in his career, sitting at 96-60-4 ATS as a 'dog. On the road, that's been particularly true, where his teams are 53-27-2 ATS as an underdog (.663).
His reputation as a live 'dog has grown at Marquette, where his Golden Eagles are 22-9-2 ATS (71%) overall and 11-5-1 ATS on the road when receiving points.
That alone would be reason to like Marquette here.
