Miami vs Virginia Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 132.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 132.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
ACC teams on the bubble are starting to solidifying their NCAA tournament fate.
The Clemson Tigers are slowly playing their way out, while the Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Cavaliers are creeping onto the right side of the bubble.
Here's Miami vs. Virginia odds and a pick.
Virginia Cavaliers
Don't look now, but Virginia is right back in the NCAA tournament discussion after winning six consecutive conference games. It may not always look like the Mona Lisa, but Tony Bennett has a knack for winning ugly games.
Virginia plays the same style it always does under Bennett — a slow, methodical pace (361st in Adjusted Tempo) and an elite defense, led by the stingy pack-line.
This year's defense has more individual talent than usual. Ryan Dunn is arguably the best defender in the sport, while Reece Beekman is terrific at limiting opposing guards from popping off for big nights.
Additionally, there are some huge problems with Virginia's offense, which ranks 146th in Offensive Efficiency. UVA is quite good in two areas: limiting turnovers (13% turnover percentage) and hitting 3s (39% from 3).
The issues stem from a lack of guard shot creation, which leads to an ineffective 2-point field goal percentage of 48%. Considering most of Virginia's shots come from inside the arc, connecting on less than 50% on 2s is a cause for concern.
I'm still anxiously awaiting for St. Thomas import Andrew Rohde to show off the scoring juice he showed in the Summit League. He's still getting a healthy diet of minutes, but he averages fewer than five points on 32% shooting and 26% from 3. Rohde is talented enough to change the outlook of UVA's lousy backcourt offense.
Meanwhile, the pack-line defense surrenders 3-point attempts often; nearly 40% of opponents' field goals come from bonus range. Coincidentally, Miami loves spraying shots from downtown.
Miami Hurricanes
If someone asked me to find a polar opposite of Virginia in the ACC, my answer, without hesitation, is Miami. The Canes usher an electric style of play, pushing the tempo (82nd in Adjusted Tempo), scoring a lot of points (44th in Offensive Efficiency) and taking good shots (19th in effective field goal percentage).
Virginia doesn't do any of those things.
Miami's key in this game is how it performs on shots from deep. The Canes shoot 38% from 3 this season and will have to make late shot-clock 3s against the pack-line defense.
Guard Nijel Pack is shooting 38% from deep and is fully capable of hitting a bunch of 3s in a row.
The other two names who could drop big performances are Kyshawn George and Wooga Poplar. I'd imagine Dunn shadows Poplar — which neutralizes his effectiveness — but at 6-foot-8, George is shooting over 41% from downtown.
He's big enough to shoot over the defense if the shot contest isn't good enough, and Miami could use another big scoring outing from the freshman.
The biggest problem for Miami is its interior defense. Opponents shoot over 52% from a 2-point range against the Canes, which ranks in the bottom-75 nationally.
Teams with athleticism and speedy guards can expose Miami on dribble penetration. Beekman is lightning fast and could create problems for Miami's defense.
Also, teams attempt a ton of 3s against Miami, so Virginia might fall in love with the perimeter jumper. But I don't think that's a bad option for the Hurricanes.
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Miami vs. Virginia
Betting Pick & Prediction
With both teams coming off of key wins, that doesn't present a favorable situational spot here for either program.
While Virginia pulled off an upset win, it's just another in the long line of consecutive victories. Virginia pulled off wins against three top-75 teams during its six-game streak, so the stretch wasn't against complete cupcakes.
Virginia hasn't faced a tougher opponent than Miami during the six-game streak, especially based on how Miami's offense can attack UVA's defense.
