Michigan State vs Penn State Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
Tom Izzo's team punched its ticket to the NCAA Tournament after Saturday's win against Illinois. The Spartans are going dancing in March, barring an unforeseeable collapse.
However, they travel to State College on Wednesday to take on the Nittany Lions in a hangover situation. The Nittany Lions lost to Northwestern, but have been scrappy in the past few weeks.
The Spartans embarrassed the Nittany Lions by 31 points on January 4th, so this is a prime matchup for oversight.
Here's Michigan State vs. Penn State odds and a pick for Wednesday.
Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans have the talent to hang with the best of the conference, but their inconsistency has cost them throughout the season. They have looked sleepy at times in similar situational spots.
Michigan State does a great job protecting the basketball, and its 3-point shooting is superb. The problem is that the Nittany Lions excel at defending the perimeter and are excellent at forcing turnovers.
The Spartans are top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency, so they can beat any opponent on their schedule. Their balance on both sides of the floor makes them tough to beat.
They must exploit the Nittany Lions on the glass in this matchup. This is a good matchup for the Spartans in that area, so they should have no issue winning the rebound battle.
Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard are incredible in the backcourt, but this is a tougher matchup for them than you may think. The Nittany Lions' perimeter defense has improved throughout the season, and it's far-fetched to think this matchup will play out as it did on January 4.
Izzo's team should clean up inside against a weak interior defense, but is otherwise in big trouble. The Spartans are on cloud nine after a massive win, but could enter the Bryce Jordan Center asleep at the wheel.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Let's take a closer look at how the Nittany Lions faired against the Spartans on January 4th:
- 32% FG
- 3-for-29 from 3
- 16 Turnovers
Not even the 1996 Bulls are winning a game with those numbers.
Penn State wants revenge and will certainly bring a better effort. The Nittany Lions are a decent offensive team, but have struggled from deep.
The Nittany Lions are shooting 32% from deep, but the metrics suggest they are due for positive regression and they can only stay within this number if they make 3s.
It is worrisome that they don't rebound well, but their defensive tenacity and ability to force turnovers should keep them in this game.
Their aggressiveness typically gets them into trouble as their opponents frequent the foul line, but Michigan State is a poor free-throw shooting team. Michigan State's inability to consistently hit free throws could be a huge benefit to the Nittany Lions.
Penn State's defense and rebounding are slightly concerning, but there is enough talent on offense to keep this game competitive at home.
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Michigan State vs. Penn State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Michign State is a great team, but the sleepy stretch in the schedule will hurt. The Spartans already destroyed the Nittany Lions, so they have zero reason to lack confidence heading into this road environment.
The Nittany Lions will rise to the occasion and keep the game close as there is plenty of reason to believe the Spartans will look flat.
The Nittany Lions have won three of their past four and easily could have beaten Northwestern. They are playing much better basketball lately and this is an excellent spot to back them at home.
